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if it's years away (and it is) then it's not material to the SP either in any sense related to this thread.
Why would Legacy partner up with Tesla 9 years ago when they are a nobody with high bankruptcy risk? And why would they want the tiny number of supercharging stations Tesla offered to sell their non-existent EVs?

The analogy you used trying to correlate the two doesn't work.
 
It took legacy adopting supercharger to jump start tesla sp from 100s to 200s. Legacy licensing fsd imo will have at least 2x the affect on sp.
I see what you are saying.

How long will it be before FSD/AP can achieve the same reliability as superchargers ? ;) Moreover unlike superchargers - where really Tesla is the only game in town, MobilEye is a very strong competitor in the legacy ADAS market.
 
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I see what you are saying.

How long will it be before FSD/AP can achieve the same reliability as superchargers ? ;) Moreover unlike superchargers - where really Tesla is the only game in town, MobilEye is a very strong competitor in the legacy ADAS market.
Probably insurance underwriters would start pushing customers into Tesla adas. Mobile eye is a strong competitor but not in performance. Legacy should already by using Teslas already when it's the only car that didn't hit a dummy during NCAP test. If that bar has been set, then I wonder how it's acceptable and not a full blown recall when your cars are allowed on the road with a faulty AEB system.
 
Probably insurance underwriters would start pushing customers into Tesla adas. Mobile eye is a strong competitor but not in performance. Legacy should already by using Teslas already when it's the only car that didn't hit a dummy during NCAP test. If that bar has been set, then I wonder how it's acceptable and not a full blown recall when your cars are allowed on the road with a faulty AEB system.
I think we are getting off topic. If you want - we can continue in the FSD thread. For the record I disagree with you (in the short term, anyway).
 
I'm hoping to be wrong as I honestly don't want to roll any of my leaps. However we just never know when there's a gigantic wave of short burning in the next year or two.
If you have sold leaps - who knows what will happen in the next 2 years ? GM can go up, they can release the next gen vehicle etc. I never sell anything more than a week (or two).

I'm fairly sure Tesla doesn't want to take liability for FSD any time in the near/medium future. Infact I don't think they will until forced by competitors (which may not happen for decades). It is simply not worth it - as I wrote, even the breakeven is one accident per a million miles. So, in that sense true FSD / robotaxi / L3/L4 is far away.

In the meantime, FSD as a ADAS service can get quite good. Currently I guess less than 10% of people who have bought FSD use FSD regularly. Only 10% or so of Tesla vehicles have FSD .... so the true FSD usage is less than 1% of the fleet. How fast that will grow even if FSD as ADAS gets very good is difficult to know. People don't want to give up control of vehicles and put themselves in life/death situations .... even if they drive terribly and text while driving. Currently the intervention rate is still in 10s of miles. That needs to get to 100s or thousands of miles per intervention before it becomes a widely accepted ADAS feature.
 
If you have sold leaps - who knows what will happen in the next 2 years ? GM can go up, they can release the next gen vehicle etc. I never sell anything more than a week (or two).

I'm fairly sure Tesla doesn't want to take liability for FSD any time in the near/medium future. Infact I don't think they will until forced by competitors (which may not happen for decades). It is simply not worth it - as I wrote, even the breakeven is one accident per a million miles. So, in that sense true FSD / robotaxi / L3/L4 is far away.

In the meantime, FSD as a ADAS service can get quite good. Currently I guess less than 10% of people who have bought FSD use FSD regularly. Only 10% or so of Tesla vehicles have FSD .... so the true FSD usage is less than 1% of the fleet. How fast that will grow even if FSD as ADAS gets very good is difficult to know. People don't want to give up control of vehicles and put themselves in life/death situations .... even if they drive terribly and text while driving. Currently the intervention rate is still in 10s of miles. That needs to get to 100s or thousands of miles per intervention before it becomes a widely accepted ADAS feature.
We are apparently very close to the thousands of miles mark. If you watch the videos of these live stream, people are throwing FSD into parade/traffic/rush hour situations and have 1 intervention in a 1-3hr drive. Only thing more difficult if it's snowing with ICE + a parade and mutliple road blocks and construction zone. Before V11 would have gone maybe a couple of minutes in those situations before an intervention. This is a pretty huge deal. Sometimes the difference between an intervention and having no intervention is fixing one thing...like road closure reroutes.
 
We are apparently very close to the thousands of miles mark. If you watch the videos of these live stream, people are throwing FSD into parade/traffic/rush hour situations and have 1 intervention in a 1-3hr drive. Only thing more difficult if it's snowing with ICE + a parade and mutliple road blocks and construction zone. Before V11 would have gone maybe a couple of minutes in those situations before an intervention. This is a pretty huge deal. Sometimes the difference between an intervention and having no intervention is fixing one thing...like road closure reroutes.
I won't really go by what we see on YT. Let us get it in our car and then we'll see. As I wrote earlier I go on multiple trips with no interventions every month on V11.

BTW, this is an actual Uber/Lyft driver who professionally uses FSD. He just got V12. He had 8 disengagements in about 500 KM (300 miles). Of the 28 trips some 96% were zero intervention (so 26 or 27 of them ?).


1710819726246.png


Yet, on 11.4.2 he had similar results.

1710819837073.png
 
I won't really go by what we see on YT. Let us get it in our car and then we'll see. As I wrote earlier I go on multiple trips with no interventions every month on V11.

BTW, this is an actual Uber/Lyft driver who professionally uses FSD. He just got V12. He had 8 disengagements in about 500 KM (300 miles). Of the 28 trips some 96% were zero intervention (so 26 or 27 of them ?).


View attachment 1029520

Yet, on 11.4.2 he had similar results.

View attachment 1029521
I was referring to live streams on X from skeptics. 3hr live stream through downtown LA during rush hour with 1 disengagement. These are the type of people looking for problems. Performance like this never happened on v11. People are raving about it because it's real.
 
In the meantime, FSD as a ADAS service can get quite good. Currently I guess less than 10% of people who have bought FSD use FSD regularly. Only 10% or so of Tesla vehicles have FSD .... so the true FSD usage is less than 1% of the fleet.
Any source for only 10% of those who purchased FSD use it? I now use it every time I drive. A couple of years ago I would only use it on trips, but since V11 I use it regularly in town too.
 
Any source for only 10% of those who purchased FSD use it? I now use it every time I drive. A couple of years ago I would only use it on trips, but since V11 I use it regularly in town too.
Estimate based on #of miles on FSD that Tesla publishes. IIRC comes to about 1 mile per car per day. So, my guess is only 10% use it for about 10 miles a day. This was sometime back - haven't checked it lately.
 
I was referring to live streams on X from skeptics. 3hr live stream through downtown LA during rush hour with 1 disengagement. These are the type of people looking for problems. Performance like this never happened on v11. People are raving about it because it's real.
Just downloaded v12. So, I can say what it feels like in a day or two. But seeing some positive reviews from usual sceptics in the FSD sub-forum. So, looks like V12 has fixed some long standing FSD issues around jerkiness.
 
Second day for me driving it- similar route to yesterday but did notice a couple things:

The thing where it seems to be reluctant to even get to the speed limit on small/local roads remains noticeable.

It seems to drive further to the right edge of small/local roads than previous... which is probably better/safer I guess, but is currently leaving me a touch paranoid at corners having read about a few folks getting curbed wheels on v12.x.

One plus- it seems to get out of lanes that were clearly ending in like 200 feet before travelling another 199 feet--- so that's an improvement- it used to wait until the ABSOLUTE last second to get out of an ending lane, even with absolutely 0 traffic.
 
Just downloaded v12. So, I can say what it feels like in a day or two. But seeing some positive reviews from usual sceptics in the FSD sub-forum. So, looks like V12 has fixed some long standing FSD issues around jerkiness.
It has definitely gained many new abilities. It finally works with gated communities vs slamming on the brake and gets stuck. I still need further testing but the one drive I had was very impressive.
 
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It has definitely gained many new abilities. It finally works with gated communities vs slamming on the brake and gets stuck. I still need further testing but the one drive I had was very impressive.
After my first drive - I've to say I'm pleasantly surprised. Except for speed control no real regression to speak of. Many positives.

May be I should buy back 180 CC expiring this week quickly ... ;)
 
Probably insurance underwriters would start pushing customers into Tesla adas. Mobile eye is a strong competitor but not in performance. Legacy should already by using Teslas already when it's the only car that didn't hit a dummy during NCAP test. If that bar has been set, then I wonder how it's acceptable and not a full blown recall when your cars are allowed on the road with a faulty AEB system.
As @EVNow already pointed out, all the possible licensing wins are going to Mobileye. The narrative gets pushed alot that everyone will license Tesla FSD, etc. But the same people don't even know what the current ADAS landscape looks like. So they continue to create narrative like the above.

But if you look for the truth you will see at every potentially licensing deal, Mobileye beats out Tesla.

For example with this announcement today:


But this is the response you will get from typical Tesla fans:
Note the fact he literally has no grid on what happens in the ADAS industry.

Nvidia is mainly a hardware provider for companies that are doing 100% in-house system and the competitor to their Drive platform (chips) is Qualcomm Ride Platform (similar compute power but cheaper) which VW is already developing on for their 100% in-house system (whenever if ever it comes out).

Nvidia doesn't focus on user-end software and their current only partnership with Mercedes to do so haven't produced anything.
So the company that is actually the leader in licensed ADAS software and features is Mobiileye, Nvidia literally has nothing to offer in that department. So Omar is demonstrating how he knows ZERO about ADAS and likewise the AV industry. And ofcourse none of his fanbase in the replies is gonna catch it because they are just as clueless, its the perfect example of the blind leading the blind.

 
As @EVNow already pointed out, all the possible licensing wins are going to Mobileye. The narrative gets pushed alot that everyone will license Tesla FSD, etc. But the same people don't even know what the current ADAS landscape looks like. So they continue to create narrative like the above.

But if you look for the truth you will see at every potentially licensing deal, Mobileye beats out Tesla.

For example with this announcement today:


But this is the response you will get from typical Tesla fans:
Note the fact he literally has no grid on what happens in the ADAS industry.

Nvidia is mainly a hardware provider for companies that are doing 100% in-house system and the competitor to their Drive platform (chips) is Qualcomm Ride Platform (similar compute power but cheaper) which VW is already developing on for their 100% in-house system (whenever if ever it comes out).

Nvidia doesn't focus on user-end software and their current only partnership with Mercedes to do so haven't produced anything.
So the company that is actually the leader in licensed ADAS software and features is Mobiileye, Nvidia literally has nothing to offer in that department. So Omar is demonstrating how he knows ZERO about ADAS and likewise the AV industry. And ofcourse none of his fanbase in the replies is gonna catch it because they are just as clueless, its the perfect example of the blind leading the blind.

Yes we know all licensing deals are going to mobile eye, however they are objectively worst than Tesla's and more expensive. Tesla hardware cost less than 500 bucks. Mobile eyes gross margin is 53% after charging people 6k for their system, putting their cogs at 2700 dollars.

Will Tesla under cut them for a better performing system? Would car companies allow tesla branded anything in their cars? Time will tell.