IMHO, the use of adapters for DC fast charging is not a workable long-term solution ("long-term" meaning over a period of decades). Adapters are cumbersome and they add a point of failure to a process that's already too prone to failure, especially at non-Tesla DC fast chargers. They're useful stop-gap tools, but in the long term, they're about as desirable as the ridiculous computer-screen enlarging lenses shown in Terry Gilliam's "Brazil":
IMHO, in a few years we're likely to see one of two things happen in North America:
- The majority of new DC fast charger installations, both Tesla and other providers, will have both Tesla and CCS1 plugs available, probably on the same charging units.
- Tesla will transition from its proprietary connector to CCS1.
Precedent for both of these approaches exists in Europe, in its own way; Tesla switched to CCS2 starting with the Model 3 and added CCS2 plugs to existing Superchargers in Europe to support this switch. In North America, we could first see lots of dual-standard DC fast chargers followed by Tesla transitioning to CCS1; or the dual-standard chargers could work long-term, much as gas pumps today often have two or more nozzles to support different fuel types (gas and diesel, for instance).
The exact wording of legislation, as well as how regulators and granting agencies interpret that wording, may force Tesla's hand on this (but probably not third-party charging providers), especially if Tesla wants to collect government incentives. This legislation has yet to pass, and the wording is still subject to change before it passes, so what the draft legislation says now is likely to change. At the moment, I know of nothing in the works that would force Tesla to add CCS1 plugs, but there might well be financial incentives for them to do so, if not adding CCS1 plugs meant they'd be giving up lots of government money.
Getting EVgo, Electrify America, etc., to add Tesla plugs will likely require Tesla's cooperation. (They might try reverse-engineering Tesla's protocols, as Setec has done with its adapter, but this strikes me as too risky a proposition when deploying DC fast charging stations that cost many thousands of dollars each.) The fact that EVgo is already adding Tesla support (albeit in a klunky way involving Tesla's CHAdeMO adapter) suggests that there is interest on the charging providers' part. If Tesla opens up its Superchargers to non-Tesla vehicles, then that may provide more incentive for the other providers to add Tesla plugs, since otherwise the drain will be basically one-way, from non-Tesla to Tesla charging stations. If EVgo, EA, etc., can add Tesla plugs, then there can be some balance. Tesla would benefit because it'll mean more charging locations for their cars. Also, sooner or later somebody's likely to target Tesla's Supercharger network for something like the Colonial Pipeline attack. If that happens and Teslas can't charge elsewhere, it will be a PR nightmare big enough to impact sales of Tesla's cars.
All that said, Tesla
could be obstinate and refuse to implement either of these options, but I doubt it -- at least, not beyond the next few years. Tesla's announced plan of using adapters to enable non-Tesla vehicles to charge at Superchargers just seems like a half-baked solution to me. Tesla might go forward with it, if their hand isn't forced by legislation, but I don't see it working in the long term. It just adds complexity and failure points to the user experience, which means that customers are likely to shun it when they have reasonable alternatives, and complain about it when they don't. Despite Tesla's significant lead in EVs so far, I don't think they'll be able to dominate the EV market for much longer (and therefore dictate terms upon the public or their competitors). Their best move, IMHO, is to try to harmonize DC fast charging standards in one way or another sooner rather than later.
