FSD Beta v11.x

EVNow · Mar 3, 2023

Goose66 said:
FSDb has absolutely no utility right now.

That makes zero sense - considering thousands of us use it all the time. I wish people topped making these sweeping generalized statements and just stated their own experience. May be its of zero utility to you because you don't know how to use it.

Using the same "logic" you used above - no doubt you are a member of TSLAQ trying to depress the stock price

DarkForest · Mar 3, 2023

EVNow said:
That makes zero sense - considering thousands of us use it all the time. I wish people topped making these sweeping generalized statements and just stated their own experience. May be its of zero utility to you because you don't know how to use it.

Using the same "logic" you used above - no doubt you are a member of TSLAQ trying to depress the stock price

I wished there was more room for nuance on the internet. FSD is both not what was promised several times in the past, and it’s currently useful to me.

I find it very easy to turn my brain on and off on the task of driving, so even if I’m having to intervene every 5 minutes, I still find utility in that. Maybe it’s my ADHD. I don’t know.

Dewg · Mar 3, 2023

EVNow said:
That makes zero sense - considering thousands of us use it all the time. I wish people topped making these sweeping generalized statements and just stated their own experience. May be its of zero utility to you because you don't know how to use it.

Using the same "logic" you used above - no doubt you are a member of TSLAQ trying to depress the stock price

Here are my rules of thumb:

1) If the post contains overly dramatic statements, or global statements, it's a vent. Example: "AP/FSD is useless/garbage/doesn't work at all". I try to ignore these, or send a "there there" or "may I offer you a hot beverage?". No point in engaging these people, as they're too entrenched in their negative experience. Just let them vent, and hope it finds them some peace.

2) If the post contains I/my statements, offering their personal experiences. Example: "My drive today had FSD Beta performing poorly for me. It ran a red light/stop sign and I had to intervene. This is a common occurrence for me, and happens usually once every 2-5 miles." I take more notice of these and try to frame them in my own personal experience - perhaps offering a counterpoint or support/validation for those experiences.

3) If the post contains questions or appeals for help with a problem, I try to help where I can if I have knowledge of the problem, or experience with the problem/solution. Example: "My car just tried to turn left a block early, and nearly ran up a curb. Why did it do that?" That may be a GPS issue, and point the person towards checking their GPS and informing them that there was a batch of cars with faulty antennas that were getting interfered with by the cabin camera.

4) If the post contains speculation about technology/software that hasn't been released yet, or forward looking statements. Example: "I think FSD V11 will be released in 1 month" or "The summon/parking features cannot operate properly without additional cameras/RADAR." I read these statements and try to look at the skill set of the individual making them. Are they qualified/knowledgeable enough to make these observations/statements? This is a judgement call - you can sometimes tell when someone has researched or has advanced knowledge of something and goes through a detailed explanation. In the Autonomous Car Progress and Waymo threads, there are some very knowledgeable people in there, and I tend to weigh their opinions more heavily than others. Most of the time, the person making the statement is not knowledgeable and is making either a guess or just wishful thinking.

kylinblue · Mar 3, 2023

DarkForest said:
I wished there was more room for nuance on the internet. FSD is both not what was promised several times in the past, and it’s currently useful to me.

I find it very easy to turn my brain on and off on the task of driving, so even if I’m having to intervene every 5 minutes, I still find utility in that. Maybe it’s my ADHD. I don’t know.

Yo same. I currently have to drive through downtown Raleigh three times a week during rush hour. It’s a set route and almost an hour long. After learning all the usual spots the cars require intervention the rest is no different from riding in an Uber.
Edit: The few complains I have are:
In stop and go traffic the FSD/AP/TACC tends to go on accel/brake a bit too hard to be comfortable for me or for the courtesy of the car behind me.
A solid 50% FSD panics at a set spot on the route, red hands on wheel and give up. I made a vid of it if anyone is interested.

I feel safe in the FSD but feel not courteous enough to the drivers around me.

kriskros91 · Mar 3, 2023

JB47394 said:
Why was it "in the stars"? They were talking about what they're working on at a strategic level - scaling the company 10 fold. Not as an aspiration, but by showing the concrete work that they're doing today to make it happen. It's exactly the sort of thing that investors should care about.

What I meant is that his specific comments were like that. I sat and watched the entire Investor Day presentation and I too was totally amazed by what they presented. I left the presentation feeling extremely optimistic of what Tesla is doing to continue to grow and scale in an exponential way while keeping costs contained. They truly seemed like a company that was so much more than making cars. It feels like they operate on a space that Toyota, Ford, and other OEMs cannot even fathom. I also noticed their somewhat snide comment about what Toyota recently said about the Model Y being a "work of art." Someone at Toyota was probably fired for making that statement lol.

That being said I think Musk himself says hyperbolic statements constantly. The stuff about Optimus robots being more than 1:1 of laborers and questions on what an economy even is, is what I mean by "in the stars." I think it is extremely foolish at this point to doubt whether what he says can (and will) happen based on his track record with SpaceX and Tesla. But it is always so forward thinking that it is hard to be on the same plane as him. Especially when we don't have the full picture like he does.

I guess I was expecting something different out of Investor Day. It doesn't seem to be an event that will happen annually. Maybe once every 2-3 years to show that Tesla is doing great things.

It seemed that someone from Tesla legal told the whole crew to keep things under wraps and not say too many speculative things (especially with regards to timelines) - but Musk still can't help himself. He is a big time dreamer and he has the staff, experience, and knowhow to make much of that stuff happen which is awesome.

tivoboy · Mar 3, 2023

I love how it seems to be nearly assumed that we're not getting anything for a while..

JB47394 · Mar 3, 2023

kriskros91 said:
That being said I think Musk himself says hyperbolic statements constantly. The stuff about Optimus robots being more than 1:1 of laborers and questions on what an economy even is, is what I mean by "in the stars." I think it is extremely foolish at this point to doubt whether what he says can (and will) happen based on his track record with SpaceX and Tesla. But it is always so forward thinking that it is hard to be on the same plane as him. Especially when we don't have the full picture like he does.

Oh, that. Yes, I have the same reaction when he goes there. It's like he goes on a spirit walk and people like me are left wondering about the fullness of what he sees. I just hope he never reaches the point where he's spending all his time there.

kabin · Mar 3, 2023

bayareaever said:
Does anyone know the status of Dojo in all this? Seems like a key missing piece but not being talked about here or by the company lately. The timeline for dojo being implemented seems to have passed a few times already (‘Elon’ timeline at least).

Probably a good rule of thumb is if they didn't make a big fuss over it then there might be issues they don't want to highlight/discuss.

I recall one mention of Dojo during the OCN slide - I was thinking OCN was an area Dojo wasn't being used but who knows.

sleepydoc · Mar 3, 2023

BBTX said:
It's pretty clear from various presentations that they mine data from at least disengagements, if not also interventions. So in that sense, yes, continued testing and intervening/disengaging as necessary still contributes to the training of the NNs.

I think most of us have assumed that to be the case. As has been discussed before here on TMC, they can easily use disengagements to trigger a report. It would be nice if they actually said "reports will be automatically generated eliminating the need for users to press the report button." As it is we were left to guess (like so many other things with Tesla!)

My guess is they also looked at the correlation between user reports and disengagements to gauge the necessity of the report button.

Supcom · Mar 3, 2023

sleepydoc said:
I think most of us have assumed that to be the case. As has been discussed before here on TMC, they can easily use disengagements to trigger a report. It would be nice if they actually said "reports will be automatically generated eliminating the need for users to press the report button." As it is we were left to guess (like so many other things with Tesla!)

My guess is they also looked at the correlation between user reports and disengagements to gauge the necessity of the report button.

There is no longer a report button for any but a select few. So, there's not need to divert the driver's attention just to tell them when a report is going to be generated. That would provide no actionable information.

sleepydoc · Mar 3, 2023

VanFriscia said:
I'd say a little of both. I, for one, thought Tesla would have made much more progress by this point in the beta. Obvious progress has been made, but it sure does feel slow coming. Maybe my expectations were too high from the start.

Yes - I feel like progress has definitely stalled out, but that's also because there hasn't been a meaningful update since 10.69 was released last September, so going on 6 months now.

Supcom · Mar 3, 2023

sleepydoc said:
Yes - I feel like progress has definitely stalled out, but that's also because there hasn't been a meaningful update since 10.69 was released last September, so going on 6 months now.

It certainly appears that the bulk of efforts is going into V11. I wish they would roll a version of that out so we had something other to talk about here than SAE levels. At this point, I think I'd rather see windshield wiper posts.

Dewg · Mar 3, 2023

I understand the caution and not rolling something out too quickly. They are under a microscope right now, so rushing anything out could backfire. I'd rather they take their time and release something a bit more cautiously.

I'm even preparing myself mentally for the possibility that the car will start reading more speed limit signs and adjusting to them - such as school zones. On a Sunday evening my car may suddenly slow down to 25MPH from 45MPH when it sees a school zone sign. Better to be safe than try to guess if there are kids somewhere around the school. Then we, as the driver, can override and wheel up the speed if we deem it legal to do so.

Supcom · Mar 3, 2023

Dewg said:
I understand the caution and not rolling something out too quickly. They are under a microscope right now, so rushing anything out could backfire. I'd rather they take their time and release something a bit more cautiously.

I'm even preparing myself mentally for the possibility that the car will start reading more speed limit signs and adjusting to them - such as school zones. On a Sunday evening my car may suddenly slow down to 25MPH from 45MPH when it sees a school zone sign. Better to be safe than try to guess if there are kids somewhere around the school. Then we, as the driver, can override and wheel up the speed if we deem it legal to do so.

There have been rumors that Tesla is trying to release a better product for highways than they had with the city streets beta.

I also noticed, in a new leaked nighttime V11 video, quite a lot of visualization blank outs. The car and other traffic was still displayed, and FSDb continued to function normally, but lane lines and intersection disappeared for a few seconds. It happened quite often. I suspect that is but one of the holdups. It's also possible that Tesla is working to incorporate the recall remedies into the next version. They certainly have motivation to get those out ASAP so they can resume FSDb access.

MP3Mike · Mar 3, 2023

Supcom said:
They certainly have motivation to get those out ASAP so they can resume FSDb access.

Actually I think they have very little incentive to roll out more. They rolled out to almost everyone that had already paid for FSD, and have been able to recognize that revenue...

gsmith123 · Mar 3, 2023

I think most of us have assumed that to be the case. As has been discussed before here on TMC, they can easily use disengagements to trigger a report. It would be nice if they actually said "reports will be automatically generated eliminating the need for users to press the report button." As it is we were left to guess (like so many other things with Tesla!)

V11.3 also has the new Audio Notes feature to supply info about disengagements. This seems like a revamped version of the report button that gives Tesla the ability to classify and track disengagements (via NLP on the audio clips) at scale. Very cool.

Based on this they're definitely seeing value in crowdsourcing more and better disengagement data from the fleet. And who knows what other telemetry and info they're constantly collecting in the background!

On a slightly pessimistic note, with 400k+ FSD Beta cars on the road the relative contribution from any individual tester is close to zero. If you drive 10x as much as the average you'd still only represent 0.0025% of the fleet testing mileage. If you live in California you're probably even less useful, LOL.

jeremymc7 · Mar 3, 2023

I'm just waiting to see what kind of final product we eventually get delivered (for HW3) and how usable it is or if there ends under being some sort of (pro-rated?) refund or class action settlement.

If they can't get HW3 to an acceptable level (whatever that is) I'd be happy with free on time courtesy transfer if you purchase a new HW4 car.

Like the last several years it's just more hurry up and then wait and see.

AlanSubie4Life · Mar 3, 2023

MP3Mike said:
Actually I think they have very little incentive to roll out more. They rolled out to almost everyone that had already paid for FSD, and have been able to recognize that revenue...

Didn’t they have a billion or so left deferred to recognize, after $324 million recognized in Q4 (with remaining of unknown origin (worldwide, subscriptions, not fully recognized, etc.) and breakdown, some of which may have been realized in Q1)? And some of that billion may not be related to FSD. No idea.

I’ve seen no analysis of what the remaining revenue to be recognized might be, whether they are fully recognizing for anyone, and I don’t think anyone knows.

gsmith123 · Mar 3, 2023

I'd be happy with free on time courtesy transfer if you purchase a new HW4 car.

I would too. In 5 years I'd probably be ready for a newer car anyway.

Didn’t they have a billion or so left deferred to recognize, after $324 million recognized in Q4 (of unknown origin (worldwide, subscriptions, not fully recognized, etc.)

There's definitely some money deferred for FSD purchases outside USA/Canada because FSD Beta is not available there. Subscriptions I would think could be fully recognized immediately (or at least with one month lag time) because Tesla has no further obligation to update the software once the subscription expires or the month the customer paid for has passed.

AlanSubie4Life · Mar 3, 2023

gsmith123 said:
There's definitely some money deferred for FSD purchases outside USA/Canada because FSD Beta is not available there. Subscriptions I would think could be fully recognized immediately (or at least with one month lag time) because Tesla has no further obligation to update the software once the subscription expires or the month the customer paid for has passed.

Yeah I generally agree with that.

This is a boring topic, especially so since it is actually likely impossible to get the correct answer. We don’t know how much they have recognized for people with FSD Beta (AFAIK), how much pushed to Q1, how much there is remaining related to FSD, and how much is worldwide, etc.

Anyway it seems like actually having a useful system that was really good could drive subscriptions. Sadly likely not possible and will never happen with these vehicles. But technically there is a lot of incentive!

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