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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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By 2027, Ark Invest believes Tesla will be generating over $1 trillion in annual revenue, with 44% coming from the robotaxi business. That will translate into $354 billion in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), of which 64% will come from robotaxis and a further 3% from human-driven ride-hailing within Tesla's network.

For now the easy money appears to be in the past for the EV business with mainstream customers reluctant to embrace them, governments turning off free money spigots, and a growing Chinese EV biz.

V11 FSD still has a psychopathic Stephen King element and TSLA isn't transparent with sales or safety numbers so it's folly to be optimistic about a Tesla robotaxis.
 
Two more different behaviors after driving another 500km or so:

- Before, at least for me, the car never initiated auto-overtake maneuver on highways when it is set to Chill. Now it does, if the difference in speed is significant. I have to force MLC if I don't want this behavior. Not sure if this is a + or -.

- Nag is far worse during nights when I initiate FSD. Unless I absolutely look forward with all arms at the right position, it will nag which forces me to provide some torque (or a wheel scroll). For now, this is a problem for me as I am used to looking at "max speed" as I engage FSD. If I do this now, I get nag 100% of the time. So I have to force myself to unlearn this behavior.
 
I tried 11.4.9 one time and it continues to be worse than versions from a year ago. It used to be able to do the stop sign and left turn into my neighborhood but for the last year or so it hesitates too long then gets confused doing the turn. I was going to test 11.4.9 but before I even got to the stop sign it once again disengaged itself on a simple left turn. That has been happening for the last two or three updates. For my test route FSD is getting worse not better. Autopilot continues to be decent though and useable.
 
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I tried 11.4.9 one time and it continues to be worse than versions from a year ago. It used to be able to do the stop sign and left turn into my neighborhood but for the last year or so it hesitates too long then gets confused doing the turn. I was going to test 11.4.9 but before I even got to the stop sign it once again disengaged itself on a simple left turn. That has been happening for the last two or three updates. For my test route FSD is getting worse not better. Autopilot continues to be decent though and useable.
So your complete evaluation of FSD is based on a single turn into your neighborhood? Is it possible that there might be other improvements aside from your single use case evaluation before determining its worse? Not saying your one issue isn’t real but it seems very specific and limited.
 
So your complete evaluation of FSD is based on a single turn into your neighborhood? Is it possible that there might be other improvements aside from your single use case evaluation before determining its worse? Not saying your one issue isn’t real but it seems very specific and limited.
It's the "I was going to test 11.4.9 but before I even got to the stop sign it once again disengaged itself on a simple left turn." that concerns me and tells me something else is happening with the car. If FSD Beta is disengaging itself (I've only ever seen this via red-wheel of death) it could indicate a software corruption, hardware failure with the FSD Computer, or intermittent camera failure.
 
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So…. More experiments with FSD 11.4.9 on an HW4 Model S Plaid.

I timed nag under various conditions, and have determine the following in my vehicle.

1. At a speed limit of 55 and moving 63, on one section of the road, nags were 12s, 12s, 14s,11s,12s.
2. Under the same conditions, on the same road, about 2 miles further, nags jumped to an average of 24 seconds, even thought the apparent environment is the same on both sections of the road.
3. I turned around and tested again, and got the exact same results. For some reason, nag frequency doubled once I passed some invisible marker on the road. I started at 24 seconds and it dropped to 12 seconds at the same location, and stayed at 12 seconds. I need to test the entire stretch of road.
4. Waving my hands over the top of the steering wheel, holding them over the wheel, or touching the dash in front of the wheel results in canceling the nag. As reported earlier, no force on the wheel (yoke in my case) is necessary to cancel the nag.

From what I have been able to determine on my vehicle, nag is a function of:

1. Vehicle Speed. The greater the speed, the higher the nag frequency.
2. The delta between posted speed and vehicle speed. The greater the vehicle speed relative to posted speed, the higher the nag frequency.
3. The road you are traveling on, or more precisely, the section of the road you are traveling on.
4. Weather conditions. The lower the visibility, the greater the nag frequency. Nags are more frequent in rain (and I assume snow and ice)
5. Time of Day. The darker it gets, the greater the nag frequency.
6. Freeway vs. non freeway. Ceteris Paribus, if I am on a freeway at the same speed as a city street, I get fewer nags. This may be related to posted vs. actual speed deltas.

I also performed an interesting test. I took a picture with my hand resting over the wheel, printed the image in high resolution color, cut out my paper “hand” (1:1 scale) bent around the top of the center of the yoke pad, just like real life, to see if the camera could be fooled. It was not fooled at all. I wonder if the camera has IR capability.

I will run more tests later as I have time.

Joe
 
It's the "I was going to test 11.4.9 but before I even got to the stop sign it once again disengaged itself on a simple left turn." that concerns me and tells me something else is happening with the car. If FSD Beta is disengaging itself (I've only ever seen this via red-wheel of death) it could indicate a software corruption, hardware failure with the FSD Computer, or intermittent camera failure.
We've been getting the red wheel of death a lot. I installed 2023.44.30.6 today so we'll see if this version is any better at not giving us the red wheel of death. We don't usually get it at the time of a difficult maneuver, but rather when driving straight on the freeway or on a neighborhood street. We also have frequent issues with our FSD display not functioning & an error message appearing that the display is degraded & may be restored on a future drive. It usually comes back after a minute or 2. During this time we can use FSD Beta even though the display doesn't show any lane lines or other vehicles, just our car.
 
We've been getting the red wheel of death a lot. I installed 2023.44.30.6 today so we'll see if this version is any better at not giving us the red wheel of death. We don't usually get it at the time of a difficult maneuver, but rather when driving straight on the freeway or on a neighborhood street. We also have frequent issues with our FSD display not functioning & an error message appearing that the display is degraded & may be restored on a future drive. It usually comes back after a minute or 2. During this time we can use FSD Beta even though the display doesn't show any lane lines or other vehicles, just our car.
Do another reset, then recalibrate your cameras.
This has worked for me in the past.
 
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A few observations on the new version.

- Single pull is great. Too bad Tesla didn't think of this earlier.
- Stop signs on the map is good. We can be prepared if a stop sign doesn't show...
- Drives more aggressively.. not in a good way at turns. Definitely worse than earlier release.
- Roundabouts still have problems. Slows down before entering and starts to speed up even if a vehicle is coming from the right, sometimes.

PS : Oh yes, lots of nags, though the upper position of the nag is better.
 
A few observations on the new version.

- Single pull is great. Too bad Tesla didn't think of this earlier.
- Stop signs on the map is good. We can be prepared if a stop sign doesn't show...
- Drives more aggressively.. not in a good way at turns. Definitely worse than earlier release.
- Roundabouts still have problems. Slows down before entering and starts to speed up even if a vehicle is coming from the right, sometimes.

PS : Oh yes, lots of nags, though the upper position of the nag is better.
Interesting... my nags are almost non existent now. Multiple trips with 0 nags. When I do get one, waving my hand around the right top side of the yoke makes the nag go away. To be clear, I don't have to physically touch the yoke to make the nag go away.

Edit: I did notice the interior camera view seems to be modified to see the yoke/wheel better than before. I could be wrong, but 10 years hasn't passed yet.
 
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A few observations on the new version.

- Single pull is great. Too bad Tesla didn't think of this earlier......
I'm having big problems with the Single Pull. It appears the software didn't install properly since my brain is still using Double Pull. Is this a known bug and will Tesla offer a brain update to correct this?
 
I'm having big problems with the Single Pull. It appears the software didn't install properly since my brain is still using Double Pull. Is this a known bug and will Tesla offer a brain update to correct this?
You are overtrained.

Sometimes I reflexively lift my right foot as soon as I notice a police car, then I realize I'm in FSD.
 
I'm having big problems with the Single Pull. It appears the software didn't install properly since my brain is still using Double Pull. Is this a known bug and will Tesla offer a brain update to correct this?
I tried it, but reverted back to double-pull. One of my Teslas does not have FSD and having AP not drop to TACC when changing lanes on a highway is really annoying. Unfortunately, single pull is stored in your profile and applies to both FSD and AP.
 
Today we have clear sky but when I tried to engage FSD, then it says "Autosteer temporarily not available" , the cameras are clean and I used it last night without any issue. Then I realize there is no "grey" steering wheel on the instrument cluster and the visualization didn't show vehicles only and no lane markings and this is in the usual neighborhood. I have tried reboot but same error, next will try calibrate cameras or wait then will open ticket. Has anyone seen this before?
 
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