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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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After single stack is released to the masses what is the next area that people will be clamoring for? Parking lot refinements, adding U turns and complex maneuvers, and ASS will be high on my list for 2023.
My highest priority is getting some ASS. If it could work from much further away (think length of a Walmart parking lot), that would be amazing. If it was L3 (as in so good, Tesla takes liability), I’d buy another Tesla.

As a mom of a 7 year old, it would be a godsend.
 
... Seems they all are from the same car and have the same steering wheel.

Probably a planned leak.

And they are doing it from a clearly distinguishable car with a customized steering wheel ('white' on the top/bottom). Co-workers would know who it was so they must not be afraid of being outed.
PnnmY9i.jpg
 
Maybe the major Tesla YouTube influencers will get it around Investor Day.

After single stack is released to the masses what is the next area that people will be clamoring for? Parking lot refinements, adding U turns and complex maneuvers, and ASS will be high on my list for 2023. After that I think we won't get sweeping changes. Just more and more small refinements and bug fixes.
The guy posting videos now is really cutting into the future income of the influencers. How sad for them.
 
Looks like FSD Beta 11.3 stays at the current side to the left or right of a wide merging lane instead of NoA's desire to center:
View attachment 909843
View attachment 909844

At least compared to NoA's visualization, the blue path doesn't have sharp angles for these "want to get to center" situations as well as actually reflecting the path to exit instead of a generic "exiting to the right" animation.

This is all I want :) Please let it trickle down to us mere peasants outside US


Do these people steal eachother's videos?
 
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This is all I want :) Please let it trickle down to us mere peasants outside US
But it does not seem to show this. Unless I missed something!

You can clearly see it moved to the right, even though it was a very short opportunity (it would have moved more if there had been more time).

Just look at the lane line positions relative to the car. No question it moved to the right. And if you watch the video it is even more obvious. Note that shifts like this are much more noticeable in the car than they are on video (even though in this case it is clearly evident on video!).

And the first (other) example shows the car staying to the right on an entrance which it has no problem doing even now.
D69067AE-F079-4850-BE71-111CABE9AFD6.jpeg

D7BDEF02-5797-41DC-B806-82A07075BED5.jpeg
 
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But it does not seem to show this. Unless I missed something!

You can clearly see it moved to the right, even though it was a very short opportunity (it would have moved more if there had been more time).

Just look at the lane line positions relative to the car. No question it moved to the right. And if you watch the video it is even more obvious. Note that shifts like this are much more noticeable in the car than they are on video (even though in this case it is clearly evident on video!).

And the first (other) example shows the car staying to the right on an entrance which it has no problem doing even now.
View attachment 910100
View attachment 910101
Yep, even in off-ramp turns it dithers back and forth within the lane.
 
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But it does not seem to show this. Unless I missed something!

You can clearly see it moved to the right, even though it was a very short opportunity (it would have moved more if there had been more time).

Just look at the lane line positions relative to the car. No question it moved to the right. And if you watch the video it is even more obvious. Note that shifts like this are much more noticeable in the car than they are on video (even though in this case it is clearly evident on video!).

And the first (other) example shows the car staying to the right on an entrance which it has no problem doing even now.
View attachment 910100
View attachment 910101
Yep, even in off-ramp turns it dithers back and forth within the lane.
GOD DAMNIT that's one of the main things I expected to get fixed in the "single stack".
 
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But it does not seem to show this. Unless I missed something!
Here's some legacy stack NoA visualizations (10.69.25.2) of similar situations from the left as well as from the right like the 11.3 examples:
10.69 wide left.jpg

10.69 wide right.jpg


The rainbow road actually reveals what Autopilot thinks is the current center of the lane, so you can see the initial lane confusion / curviness that is actually "imagined" from how it was trained with heuristic workarounds that then suddenly jerks to the new center. FSD Beta 11.x at these merging situations for highways or city streets has much better perception and understanding of what lines actually exist with merge regions allowing for more natural and smoother driver.
 
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FSD Beta 11.x at these merging situations for highways or city streets has much better perception and understanding of what lines actually exist with merge regions allowing for more natural and smoother driver.
Sure, it might! But we’d need to see some examples of it handling these situations. So far the example above shows it centering in the lane in a situation where the lane is perceived to widen (very briefly).

All I know is that 10.69 just centers in the perceived lane on surface streets (which is incorrect of course). That much is clear. Have multiple repeatable test cases (posted the videos previously) where no change in behavior has been observed with the incrementals.

Will be exciting to see if they improve the capability before wider release, in any case.

It may already be smoother than regular AP, I have no idea - but the question is whether it will be correct, or whether it will just do the wrong thing more smoothly.
 
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My highest priority is getting some ASS. If it could work from much further away (think length of a Walmart parking lot), that would be amazing. If it was L3 (as in so good, Tesla takes liability), I’d buy another Tesla.

As a mom of a 7 year old, it would be a godsend.
Ok…I don’t think that means what I think it means, so what does it mean?
 
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It seems pretty natural to dump NOA temporarily
Looks like another drop is following distance (1-7 or 2-7 for Tesla Vision) quick change with right scrollwheel is replaced by FSD Beta's 3 driving profiles:
11.3 scrollwheel settings.jpg



Although all 3 here seem to show "Minimal Lane Changes" so maybe that's a separate setting from the full Autopilot settings view? Or the UI isn't finished and is temporary anyway? I suppose if permanent, it avoids the issue of restoring "1 following distance" setting.
 
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