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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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It's still only 0.3% of the fleet on teslafi... vs ~27% of the fleet on 11.3.x- so I wouldn't consider remotely this a wide rollout yet
It could be worse like for @Ramphex.... He is just getting regen braking and backup camera with his version 😳

Here is the email Tesla just sent him:

Hello,
We will be pushing FSD Beta Version 10.2 to your vehicle shortly!

Full Self-Driving is in limited early access Beta and must be used with additional caution. It may do the wrong thing at the worst time, so you must always keep your hands on the wheel and pay extra attention to the road. Do not become complacent. When Full Self-Driving Beta is enabled, your vehicle will make lane changes off highway, select forks to follow your navigation route, navigate around other vehicles and objects, and make left and right turns. Use Full Self-Driving Beta only if you will pay constant attention to the road, and be prepared to act immediately, especially around blind corners, crossing intersections, and in narrow driving situations. Every driver is responsible for remaining alert and active when using Autopilot and must be prepared to take action at any time.

As part of receiving FSD Beta, your vehicle has automatically opted into VIN associated telemetry sharing with Tesla, including Autopilot usage data, images and/or video. If you wish to be removed from the limited early access FSD Beta please email [email protected]

Your vehicle is running on Tesla Vision! Note that Tesla Vision also includes some temporary limitations, as noted below:

  • Follow distance is limited to 2-7.
  • Autopilot top speed is 80 mph.
How to provide feedback:

  • Press the "Video Record" button on the top bar UI to send an Autopilot Snapshot video clip.
    • Clips are automatically sent to the engineering team. You will not be able to view the clip.
  • You can email your feedback to [email protected].
    • In your email please include date, time, location, and if you took an Autopilot Snapshot. This helps us investigate issues, and better understand your feedback.


Thank,



The Tesla Team
 
Ugh! I check my car for the first time since April, and no 11.4.1! ;-)
The last few updates have just appeared on mine, no checking required. I'm not sure, but I think someone reported getting the update only a few hours after checking. In any case, it may be than checking your software version in the car does not get you updated any quicker.

Another observation on this is that TeslaFi shows pending and installed numbers for each version. Pending increases in jumps every couple days or so, and then comes down as installed goes up. The point is that between jumps, the sum of pending and installed remains roughly constant. This suggests that Tesla assigns a batch of cars to be pending. You are either in a given batch or not. The car will download when it has WiFi and Tesla's servers have the bandwidth. After download, it waits for you to approve the installation. Anyway, this again suggests that checking for updates in the car no longer triggers an update. It might help you jump the queue to start downloading, but the FSD batches are relatively small, so the servers can make all the downloads pretty quickly.
 
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Reactions: FSDtester#1
11.3.6 can be assertive too... for example today it quickly dove into the right hand lane about a mile before I was going to need to turn right.

Sadly that was a lane that ended another 150 feet or so later in a forced right, long before I was actually going to need to turn, forcing me to hit the brakes as it was either going to just run right over the little turn island if it kept going straight or was going to turn right at the very wrong spot and at too high a speed- didn't want to find out which.
I frequently have this same issue. V11 always did this at the same location that was never a problem for V10. Now on 11.3.6 FSD usually makes the right decision, but sometimes goes into the right turn only lane. One time it didn't go into wrong lane, but then made a left instead of going straight. It acts like the car sometimes thinks there is a left turn only lane and a straight lane, instead of straight and right turn only.

GSP
 
Your vehicle is running on Tesla Vision! Note that Tesla Vision also includes some temporary limitations, as noted below:

  • Follow distance is limited to 2-7.
  • Autopilot top speed is 80 mph.


LOL at "temporary" from 2 years ago now...

I mean, I guess the 2-7 (rather than 1-7 folks had with radar cars before teslavision) WAS temporary in that the new version of fsdb removes choice of distance setting entirely, replacing it with the 3 "mood" options.

And the 80 top speed limitation was also "temporary" in that it's 85 now, which is still 5 below what it was with radar.
 
LOL at "temporary" from 2 years ago now...

I mean, I guess the 2-7 (rather than 1-7 folks had with radar cars before teslavision) WAS temporary in that the new version of fsdb removes choice of distance setting entirely, replacing it with the 3 "mood" options.

And the 80 top speed limitation was also "temporary" in that it's 85 now, which is still 5 below what it was with radar.
The funniest part was the ending that's an exact copy of the email they sent us all. It says "thank" instead of "thanks"
The Tesla team
no one never proof read it.

I hope it's not the coders that are writing the emails!!!
 
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Reactions: jebinc
I'm not fond of his routes but Black Tesla does a proper job of FSD evaluation.

Interesting how FSD needs to anticipatory brake for vehicles creeping toward the flow of traffic. It would be an ugly world if it ever gets thick with FSD equipped creeping Teslas all needing to anticipatory brake to each other.

I was surprised how positive he was at the end when he summarized his first V11.4.1 drive. Nice to see.
 
Is 11.4.1 using some form of HD maps?

Ask 5 different people what an "HD map" is and you'll get 5 different answers.

We already know Tesla uses map data for driving, including things like speed limits, stop sign locations, number and type of lanes, etc.

We also know they update this data in real time each time you enter a destination into the nav.

But they're not the cm or mm accurate things many LIDAR fans insist are "HD maps"
 
11.3.6

Might be late in this version, but I did several runs through Colorado Springs to see how it would signal a lane change for an exit on Assertive with minimal lane changes selected. For the far left lane, it’s all over the place, anywhere between 1.1-2 .0 miles. Once in the middle lane, it’s pretty consistent at 0.6–0.8 miles, one time it waited until 0.2, possibly because I was boxed in but moving slightly faster than the right lane.
I’m on a road trip, so I’m letting it make lane decisions on the highway since there’s only two lanes most most of the time when I’m cruising. It will reliably pass on the left with enough time to avoid slowing down, even with a 15 mph speed differential.

But it doesn’t get back over into the right lane, like many states require. I put it in situations where I had someone coming up behind me, but it still wouldn’t get over to the right in at least 10 tries.

For PB on the highway, it’s on a rise like usual, but now maybe half the time accompanied by an abrupt, but signaled lane change to the left. Could be an avoidance behavior for whatever it thinks of seeing.

Roundabout behavior is markedly better than 10.69 versions, but it still likes to change lanes in the middle of the roundabout or slow down too much, often remedied by a slight pedal press. 10.69 would often give up in the same roundabouts, so it’s improved.

Regardless, I’m not excited about taking it through two lane roundabouts with traffic, but maybe having a car in that other lane is what would keep it from moving over wide. A lot of roundabouts have gaps in the lines where the exits are, so it might be having a problem continuing the path in these short radius roundabouts I am usually in.
 
11.3.6

Might be late in this version, but I did several runs through Colorado Springs to see how it would signal a lane change for an exit on Assertive with minimal lane changes selected. For the far left lane, it’s all over the place, anywhere between 1.1-2 .0 miles. Once in the middle lane, it’s pretty consistent at 0.6–0.8 miles, one time it waited until 0.2, possibly because I was boxed in but moving slightly faster than the right lane.
I’m on a road trip, so I’m letting it make lane decisions on the highway since there’s only two lanes most most of the time when I’m cruising. It will reliably pass on the left with enough time to avoid slowing down, even with a 15 mph speed differential.

But it doesn’t get back over into the right lane, like many states require. I put it in situations where I had someone coming up behind me, but it still wouldn’t get over to the right in at least 10 tries.

For PB on the highway, it’s on a rise like usual, but now maybe half the time accompanied by an abrupt, but signaled lane change to the left. Could be an avoidance behavior for whatever it thinks of seeing.

Roundabout behavior is markedly better than 10.69 versions, but it still likes to change lanes in the middle of the roundabout or slow down too much, often remedied by a slight pedal press. 10.69 would often give up in the same roundabouts, so it’s improved.

Regardless, I’m not excited about taking it through two lane roundabouts with traffic, but maybe having a car in that other lane is what would keep it from moving over wide. A lot of roundabouts have gaps in the lines where the exits are, so it might be having a problem continuing the path in these short radius roundabouts I am usually in.
Driving up Interstate 5 recently, I found that putting minimal lane change on was basically restricting it to me making my own lane change choices. I had best success with Average and no minimal lane changes. My car would move into the left to pass, and get back into the right lane if there was anyone behind me. On my own I would get over to the right a bit sooner, but it was quite adequate in getting out of the way of faster traffic.
 
so maybe it's just not a big priority while they're working on more fundamental driving skills.
This is absolutely one of the most fundamental driving skills. It involves being able to anticipate, make simultaneous estimated distance and velocity measurements on multiple moving and stationary objects, and calculate what is necessary to control the car smoothly and consistently to a stop, while minimizing the probability of being rear ended.

From that can flow controlling the dynamics of the car in many other situations.

No such thing has been done; there are very limited efforts to improve this (it has improved tremendously, but it is still horribly broken), and we are stuck in a loop of latency and inane driving behavior with horrible dynamics, while the hen-pecked FSD engineering team struggles to slather on another layer of NN 💩 to fix some other complicated situations where FSD will never be used by anyone in their right minds, because it is so awful at the basics.

Rinse and repeat. Why are we even spending any time talking about or looking forward to 11.4.x? It’s already clear it will be wholly inadequate based on all the video evidence we have seen. Next version please. (In fact let’s just skip ahead 20 versions.) The situation is completely demoralizing, especially with Elon’s predictable continued gaslighting about it being so great.

Get back to me when FSD can perceive and react faster than a human. That would be a start, and would make me take notice and have some optimism, which is quite lacking from me, which is annoying to all involved.

As soon as HW4 is fully rolled out (don’t want to scare people off HW3-equipped vehicles!), of course Elon is going to start trumpeting it, and THAT will surely be the key to our glorious autonomous future.