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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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I can't imagine anyone really cares. We all know there won't be any substantive changes here. Remember when Elon said that 11.4 was really more like an entirely new V12? 🤣
Actually I do care. Some point releases fix regressions. Since I've had a lot of regressions on v11.4.2 along with some good improvements I'm hoping for overall improvement.
 
I can't imagine anyone really cares. We all know there won't be any substantive changes here. Remember when Elon said that 11.4 was really more like an entirely new V12? 🤣
Actually a lot of us do. 4.2 has some things working better but definitely a bad regression on lane selection. If they fix that in 4.3, would be great.
 
I have had 11.4.2 do some really dangerous things: running stop signs and pulling out in front of traffic top the list. This said, I am testing it much more than I tested 11.4.1 and I cannot be sure if 11.4.2 is worse than 11.4.1, or if I am simply using it more frequently and becoming more aware. I also see improvements; lane ending merges are smoother and are not waiting until the last second, I am getting smoother performance in many maneuvers, and it seems to be slowing down better for stop signs (well… that is when it isn’t actually blowing right through them).

The truth of the matter is that where it is dangerous, it is REALLY dangerous, and I don’t trust it any further than I can throw my Tesla Model S. I am still having fun driving with FSD engaged… but then again, my ancestry.com DNA test indicated that I am an adrenaline junkie, so I suppose it is in my DNA. LOL.

Joe


The more I use 11.4.2 the less impressed I am. several regressions and nothing significantly improved that I can tell. Enjoy being on 11.3.6
 
One of the definite improvements in 11.4.2 was this Texas style junction.
Coming of Hwy79(Parker Blvd SE) at 65mph, it slows right down for the off ramp, then takes the sharp right with a bit of hesitation, then the even sharper left onto Rices Crossing Road with more hesitation, the another right with a very acute angle onto Hwy95/South Main St.
Previous versions didn't get close, apart from the hesitation 11.4.2 did really well, no take over needed other than some encouragement ;)
I was quite impressed
Screenshot 2023-06-09 at 16.16.02.png
 
Actually a lot of us do. 4.2 has some things working better but definitely a bad regression on lane selection. If they fix that in 4.3, would be great.
They'll break something else even if they fix whatever regressions they fix. It's a never-ending merry-go-round. And there are some things that will never get fixed because it's not possible with current hardware. I've been trying to come up with what I believe is a realistic timeframe for FSD that is actually safer than the "average human" (which to be fair, is a low bar as it is). It's certainly not this year (I'll stake anything you like on that). How many years are you here all thinking? 5? 10?

I do wonder when we can all get refunds...
 
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They'll break something else even if they fix whatever regressions they fix. It's a never-ending merry-go-round. And there are some things that will never get fixed because it's not possible with current hardware. I've been trying to come up with what I believe is a realistic timeframe for FSD that is actually safer than the "average human" (which to be fair, is a low bar as it is). It's certainly not this year (I'll stake anything you like on that). How many years are you here all thinking? 5? 10?

I do wonder when we can all get refunds...



The pre March 2019 buyers probably can eventually. The post 3/19 buyers, if they have the beta, already got everything actually promised during the sale.
 
I can't imagine anyone really cares. We all know there won't be any substantive changes here. Remember when Elon said that 11.4 was really more like an entirely new V12? 🤣
To be fair - when Elon said that, he wasn't saying it was because 1l.4 would drive so much better than 11.3. He was saying that it has major architectural changes internally. Many more tasks assigned to neural networks.

Not defending his tendency to overestimate the performance of an upcoming release, but that's not what happened in this case.
 
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