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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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I’ve been driving the same seven-segment FSD test route since the Fall of 2021, the map of which is included in the link below.

Today I did the route on 11.4.4 and it resulted in the highest number of disengagements ever. This version performed a number of alarming actions, several of which would have absolutely resulted in a collision had I not intervened. Earlier in the week 11.4.4 drove straight into oncoming traffic coming from a one-way street (Figueroa at 3rd St, downtown LA). Anyway, it’s not impressive.

FSD Test Log

A million robotaxis any day now.
 
since the Fall of 2021,
Crazy it has been that long; doesn’t feel like it! Feels like relatively little progress and coming up rapidly on two years since we first started using it!

While I can’t argue with your end result (you definitely have to watch it carefully to be sure it does not kill you!), it is a lot better at the basics (steering, speed control) than it used to be. Definitely could be more disengagements (safety related and in general) though. Kind of unrelated to the proficiency at the basics.

I think freeway/NOA is much more capable than it was now (still have to watch for suicidal tendencies). Nearly sublime at times, incredibly stupid at others.

Oh well. Guess it requires a lot more than most anticipated…

Another few years and we’ll be close.* Maybe.

* HW not included
 
I have been in Houston all week. Just a general observation after doing a lot of manual driving with my car rental.
  1. I haven't encountered a single obstructed view intersection whereas at home in Massachusetts I encounter them pretty much on every drive and some are really bad and dangerous. I suspect that is why many on this forum don't seem to appreciate the concern many of us have with the B-pillar camera location. Its' just not much of a problem where many live and drive.
  2. Lane changes- lots. Makes me appreciate everyone who has encountered serious lane change problems. Sure I have some lane change issues at home but I suspect if I used FSD here I'd be complaining more.
  3. I miss FSD!
 
Crazy it has been that long; doesn’t feel like it! Feels like relatively little progress and coming up rapidly on two years since we first started using it!

While I can’t argue with your end result (you definitely have to watch it carefully to be sure it does not kill you!), it is a lot better at the basics (steering, speed control) than it used to be. Definitely could be more disengagements (safety related and in general) though. Kind of unrelated to the proficiency at the basics.

I think freeway/NOA is much more capable than it was now (still have to watch for suicidal tendencies). Nearly sublime at times, incredibly stupid at others.

Oh well. Guess it requires a lot more than most anticipated…

Another few years and we’ll be close.* Maybe.

* HW not included
Right?! 10.3 in 10/21 to 11.4.4 in 6/23. At this rate, v12 is still “way over the horizon,” and likely not “by the end of the year,” as the great Charlatan espouses.
 
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Not a regular on this thread, but on my last trip on 11.4.4, noticed how well FSD moved over and back for motorcyclists splitting lanes. I was in the fast lane and the motorcyclists split mine and the carpool lane quite frequently and FSD was edging over briefly for each of them. It absolutely must have seen them approaching via the backup camera, due to the impressive timing of the maneuver. Is this behavior new, or has it been around for a while? It was really impressive and was nice not to get the occasional "F you" from bikers for being clueless....Also I did search this thread and didn't find anything.
I found the same to be true yesterday on the 101. Ego is not freaking out like it used to. That and all of a sudden no PB's in a 100 mile trip. Progress there. ;)
 
I drove a little over two hours on 11.4.4 today. Using average settings and not checking the “minimize lane changes for this drive” box produced an intolerable amount of lane changes. Normally, I wouldn’t pay much attention to lane change frequency, but today, I had someone following me which made me acutely aware of lane changes because the person following me was making the lane changes right behind me. The next time I go on a longer drive, I am going to select minimize lane changes to see the impact of this switch. If that doesn’t produce the desired stability, I will try chill mode instead of average mode.

Other than the excessive number of lane changes, the drive, mostly rural freeway, was uneventful. Uneventful == Good.

Joe

On Edit:

Lately, the pucker factor for FSD 11.4.4 has been pretty high for me. High pucker factor means that the car could flip over and you could be held in the seat by your butt cheeks and nothing else.
I drive mostly average with minimal lane change on highways. It keeps the following distance so that people don't cut me off like in Chill.
 
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I’ve been driving the same seven-segment FSD test route since the Fall of 2021, the map of which is included in the link below.

Today I did the route on 11.4.4 and it resulted in the highest number of disengagements ever. This version performed a number of alarming actions, several of which would have absolutely resulted in a collision had I not intervened. Earlier in the week 11.4.4 drove straight into oncoming traffic coming from a one-way street (Figueroa at 3rd St, downtown LA). Anyway, it’s not impressive.

FSD Test Log

A million robotaxis any day now.
interesting dataset, thank you for sharing and taking the time to keep testing.
It really does show how much of an improvement 11.4.2 was, while also show just how much of a step back it was going to 11.4.4.
Whatever they broke with 11.4.3, they really broke it.
Longing for the heady days of 10.12.2
 
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There is a particular intersection I often travel where FSDb stops way before the stop sign, at the red line in the image, then blows right through the stop sign to make the left turn. It only slows down enough to make a turn, not to check for traffic, which it can't see due to the trees on the right. It's been doing that for the last year.

Now on 11.4.4 it does not stop at the red line or white line, then creep, but instead stops at the blue line. While this is much safer that before, however it does go right into the bicycle lane without checking. Fortunately it is uphill at that point so bicycles are going much slower than normal.

I don't recall it ever stopping at the white line.
View attachment 951581
I've had this happen (not often) where it blows a stop sign after immediately turning from another road, like it's not registering the sign fast enough for some reason. Maybe it's doing that and then realizing there's a road there and stopping late.
 
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Um. I hear what you say, but just drove the GSP southbound from roughly I-78 to US-1 today. There were two 45 mph zones due to construction: One a couple of miles long about where the road crosses SR22 and a couple of other road and there's cones and solid lines all over; another is a short stretch just south of Clark. The car made attempts to slow to 45 (and said so on the screen) both times. I think that, northbound, only the region south of I-78 has that limit and the car responds to that, each and every time, most recently a couple of days ago. It's been like this, far as I know, since I've been testing FSD-b from mid-2022.

Never ran into any 50 mph speed limit around there, I think, although there's some more construction further north towards Newark, but I rarely go up that way.
Yes, the George Washington Parkway in Washington DC is a different road. I don’t generally have issues with construction zones. I think the reversible lane may be at work.
 
I’ve been driving the same seven-segment FSD test route since the Fall of 2021, the map of which is included in the link below.

Today I did the route on 11.4.4 and it resulted in the highest number of disengagements ever. This version performed a number of alarming actions, several of which would have absolutely resulted in a collision had I not intervened. Earlier in the week 11.4.4 drove straight into oncoming traffic coming from a one-way street (Figueroa at 3rd St, downtown LA). Anyway, it’s not impressive.

FSD Test Log

A million robotaxis any day now.
There were good reasons for the full v11.4.4 release to put out of its misery.
 
Crazy it has been that long; doesn’t feel like it! Feels like relatively little progress and coming up rapidly on two years since we first started using it!

While I can’t argue with your end result (you definitely have to watch it carefully to be sure it does not kill you!), it is a lot better at the basics (steering, speed control) than it used to be. Definitely could be more disengagements (safety related and in general) though. Kind of unrelated to the proficiency at the basics.

I think freeway/NOA is much more capable than it was now (still have to watch for suicidal tendencies). Nearly sublime at times, incredibly stupid at others.

Oh well. Guess it requires a lot more than most anticipated…

Another few years and we’ll be close.* Maybe.

* HW not included
Yeah imo there has been literally zero progress since 2021 if you just go by disengagement rate for my drives. 11.3.6 was actually a fairly good and significant improvement, but 11.4.x has me disengaging more than I did on 10.2 all the way back then. It’s crazy bad. Watch ai Driver’s video if you don’t believe me.
 
Small update. I did another four hours of rural freeway driving on 11.4.4, same route as last time, but this time I used minimize lane changes and it was awesome. So much better than the maniacal lane changes last time. This said, I no longer trust 11.4.4 under the following conditions:

Left turns across traffic where there are no traffic control signs
Any turns at all in a city the size of Charlotte NC or larger.
Any stops with stop signs that do not show up on the map; ego goes through them like a hooker through blow.
Anything that generates yoke spasms; I take over instantly when ego when it starts shaking like a hooker going through withdrawal from blow.

I am thankful I live in a rural area. If I lived in a large city, you would not catch me using FSD 11.4.4; far too risky right now.

Joe
 
Yeah imo there has been literally zero progress since 2021 if you just go by disengagement rate for my drives. 11.3.6 was actually a fairly good and significant improvement, but 11.4.x has me disengaging more than I did on 10.2 all the way back then. It’s crazy bad. Watch ai Driver’s video if you don’t believe me.
10.3 was far worse for me on the same routes. I barely allowed it to make turns, but I agree 11.3.6 was MUCH better and likely why Tesla is providing that to new testers.

I do think overall the interstate single stack is better with the exception of lane changes. The nags are less frequent, too. I can over 2 min between nags without a hand on the wheel and I have more freedom to look at the screen than I previously did.
 
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I am embarrassed to admit that I had to look up “k-hole”. LOL. How in the world can someone use Ketamine to the point where they become disassociated with their body. What??? Are people that @#$#@ing stupid? What am I thinking, of course they are. I bet the boards of the public companies are not too happy with the exposure.

Oh… wait… THAT EXPLAINS IT!!!

11.4.4 is using the ”Ketamine“ neural network!

Joe

Does time really matter when you're swimming in a K-hole?
 
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Is it worth recalibrating the cameras? I haven't done that since I took delivery of the car almost a year ago.

One thing I wonder about is how having a bike rack on the back (with a bike) affects things. Clearly it "lets me know" when I am backing up that there is something there (truth). But I wonder if it interferes with anything longer term
 
Is it worth recalibrating the cameras? I haven't done that since I took delivery of the car almost a year ago.

One thing I wonder about is how having a bike rack on the back (with a bike) affects things. Clearly it "lets me know" when I am backing up that there is something there (truth). But I wonder if it interferes with anything longer term
I used to re-calibrate cameras with each new version. But, I stopped quite a few versions back. Unless you are having some strange issues, It won't hurt to do it, but, unless you are having some strange issues, it's probably not going to make things better.

If you do re-calibrate, pick a time when you can drive along an interstate for 20-30 miles. Re-calibration seems to complete most quickly when you have good, clear lane markings.
 
For those of us new to the FSDb (new M3), would it be safe to say that 11.3.6 is the most stable/safe version at the moment?
I've had similar success with 11.3.6 and 11.4.4. They act a little differently but overall, both have been pretty good to me. Neither is anything close to perfect, though with use, you'll learn where they will have difficulty.