FSD discussion

[Zero CO2]

Same here...but I would probably just prefer the highway portion for $4k max though. They would probably sell a lot of that if under $4k.

The city part isn't much use for me until I can pass out drunk in the back seat and have it drive me home. Would even pay extra if it would smooth things over with the wife once we got home. Current price for EAP is too steep for me. Wonder what the take rate is to see if other people feel the same.

FSDb is already much safer than a drunk driver ... or distracted driver

 

[jerry33]

Stickiness works when you have a product that the consumer tries and then realizes he can't live without. FSD is not there yet. FSD does not save you time or money.

However, it just might save your life.

 

[Singuy]

However, it just might save your life.

Based on the 150M miles statistic, we should see over 120 injuries from 400k beta testers and about 2.5 deaths.

Anyone heard anyone died or got injured on FSDB?

 

[Zero CO2]

However, it just might save your life.

or kill you ...according some TMCers ... who i really am starting to question whether they actually have FSDb...
all i can say is "thank god they are behind the wheel disengaging and stopping FSDb from killing themselves"

 

[InTheMiddle]

FSDb is already worth it as a monthly subscription feature imho ... anecdotally did a 160 mile hour trip last night ... as a safety feature it is already there ...
while using FSDb at night my job is to use my brain to scan the horizon and look far ahead to where the car is going ... not the mundane driving function ...
saw deer eyes reflecting in the high beams ...way in the distance .... since FSDb free me up to scan the road more accurately ... i slowed down and let the deer herd cross the road ...

I am assuming Tesla is still anti-selling until they have enough learning for the FSDb to be safer than humans based on statistics ...

if you are not driving FSDb it is very difficult to make a judgement as to readiness ... for me it is great ... and i hate driving without FSDb ...
my analogy is how i feel not wearing a seatbelt ... I feel naked and at risk ... FSDb is similar ... driving without FSDb now feels dangerous to me

As someone who has FSDb on 3 separate vehicle types, and has put many tens of thousands of miles on everything from 2017-era EAP+FSD builds thru the most current stack, in varying scenarios across multiple states, I can assure everyone of two things:
1. Symbiotic safety between the driver and FSDb: There have been many times when, if I had not intervened, FSDb would have caused property damage (potentially enough to total out the value of the vehicle) and potentially some personal injury; fortunately, I was easily able to intervene and avoid any such occurrence in each instance. Conversely, there have absolutely been times where, if FSDb were *not* engaged, I myself would have very likely caused property damage and risk of personal injury to the same degree, if not more; however, because FSDb was engaged and saved me from my own failings, the accident was avoided in each instance. My vehicles and I have symbiotically saved each other on more than one occasion each way. I would not put my confidence in FSDb keeping me safe w/o oversight, but I also no longer consider it safe for a human to drive w/o FSDb to oversee them as well.
2. I assume there is a typo or something missing, because I 100% assure you that you did *not* do a "160 mile hour trip" last night while on FSDb...unless you have some super special build w/o the "put you in AP time-out" restrictions on max speed (and if so, I would like to try your FSDb build! ).

 

[EVNow]

Based on the 150M miles statistic, we should see over 120 injuries from 400k beta testers and about 2.5 deaths.

Anyone heard anyone died or got injured on FSDB?

See the AP report Tesla sends NHTSA. Difficult to tease out AP vs FSD but definitely some accidents on city streets.

BTW, Tesla has shown their FSD accident rate (1 in a 3.2 million miles, IIRC).

Tesla ADAS Incident Reports

I'm starting this thread to analyze incident reports that Tesla files with NHTSA regarding crashes involving cars that might be related to FSD or AP or NOA. Note that Tesla has to report any incidence where the crash happens even if AP/FSD/NOA was engaged within 30 seconds prior to the crash...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[EVNow]

However, it just might save your life.

It might... But that is not the impression one gets on the first drive or for that matter 10th. The impression is that it's unsafe and not useful as a ADAS feature unlike NOA or plain AP.

FSDb has a steep learning curve and only a few actually use FSD regularly.

2.5 miles of FSD per day per user (1 Million miles for 400 k users) is a very low usage rate. Assuming about 30 miles avg per day (1k per month), it's less than 10%. My guess is about 50k users actively use FSD. Rest probably try it once every new release and give up when they find problems.

 

[jerry33]

It might... But that is not the impression one gets on the first drive or for that matter 10th. The impression is that it's unsafe and not useful as a ADAS feature unlike NOA or plain AP.

FSDb has a steep learning curve and only a few actually use FSD regularly.

2.5 miles of FSD per day per user (1 Million miles for 400 k users) is a very low usage rate. Assuming about 30 miles avg per day (1k per month), it's less than 10%. My guess is about 50k users actively use FSD. Rest probably try it once every new release and give up when they find problems.

I regularly use it. 100% on highway, 60% in city.

 

[Singuy]

See the AP report Tesla sends NHTSA. Difficult to tease out AP vs FSD but definitely some accidents on city streets.

BTW, Tesla has shown their FSD accident rate (1 in a 3.2 million miles, IIRC).

Tesla ADAS Incident Reports

I'm starting this thread to analyze incident reports that Tesla files with NHTSA regarding crashes involving cars that might be related to FSD or AP or NOA. Note that Tesla has to report any incidence where the crash happens even if AP/FSD/NOA was engaged within 30 seconds prior to the crash...

teslamotorsclub.com

Accidents does not equal injuries. Humans get into way more accidents than the 120 injuries.

 

[EVNow]

I regularly use it. 100% on highway, 60% in city.

I use it more than 90% on freeways and city. Used EAP on city streets before that. We are in minority, though.

 

[EVNow]

Accidents does not equal injuries. Humans get into way more accidents than the 120 injuries.

As I said you can try to tease out FSD vs AP from that report... You can get injury rates.

 

[deshkart]

FSD is actually massively better compared to last 12 months. Today, it did a drive - no intervention from my home to a lab (20 kms highway and busy city)with complicated city driving.

My Tesla did a right overtake on a car waiting on left turn as we were supposed to go straight. LOL … It entered right only lane, cleared the intersection and then came back to our lane like a champ. No one behind would have known that it’s a software that executed the maneuver.

It’s going to get wild in next 12 months IMO.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1650659105500188673

Discussion here:
FSD discussion

Fast forward 2 years: Prices could be:

• EAP $6k
• FSD for private use $25k
• Tesla Networked Robotaxi $100k (assuming owner receives 70% of revenue and Tesla don't own the fleet which is my preference)

EAP becomes the gateway drug at bargain basement prices.

 

[Baumisch]

Fast forward 2 years: Prices could be:

• EAP $6k
• FSD for private use $25k
• Tesla Networked Robotaxi $100k (assuming owner receives 70% of revenue and Tesla don't own the fleet which is my preference)

EAP becomes the gateway drug at bargain basement prices.

I disagreeed ...

We still have basic Autopilot as basic with every car, Tesla can't take that away. And Tesla always states that safety features will be enabled without cost as available.

Those 2 principles to me mean that basic AP needs to be on most capable stack available (same as EAP) and all safety features must be enabled.
So how can Tesla justify a 6k upgrade to someone like me who tomorrow will drive 600km within Germany on 2 charging stops with AP enabled?
Yes I need to change lanes manually and clear slower cars - but so far I just put AP on 140km/h and stay on the 2nd left lane - works great for hours on end as trucks are all the way right - it's annoying and technically not fully legal (to not clear the middle lane if all lanes are free) - but I wouldn't pay 6k just to enable lane changes for me. (and maybe construction sides, adaptive speed limits etc ...)

Not sure about US market - but in EU all countries except Germany have <140kmh speed limits anyway - so outside of germany it's even less annoying to stay in a lane statically with AP for longer times.

After thinking a bit - does "hands off" mean "L3 on highways"?

THAT would peek my interested - still not sure what to do with hands-off time were I need to stay ready to take over, but I would like to find out if the experience is worth it.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Single case anecdote here but I post it for reference. Count me as one of the people that uses FSDb WAY more thsn 90% of the time. Closer to 98%. Today is a great representation of why.

I went to work this morning and my wife drove to Atlanta for a routine doctor appointment. (96 miles one way) While there, they find an issue that they want to keep her overnight for. I need to get to her and I am tired, sleepy, and distracted with worry. Not the best conditions to be driving in. FSDb took me from the parking lot at work to the parking lot at the urgent care facility. Yes, I was monitoring the entire time, but I know I was WAY, WAY safer co-driving with FSD as the primary and me as the backup than I would have been on my own in my physical and mental state

So grateful to the entire FSD team at Tesla for giving me this product that could help us out in a time of need.

Like I said, just my take and a very small sample size, bit I feel vulnerable and somewhat anxious when driving by myself now. My car and I make a damn good team!

Dan

 

[Buckminster]

I disagreeed ...

We still have basic Autopilot as basic with every car, Tesla can't take that away. And Tesla always states that safety features will be enabled without cost as available.

Those 2 principles to me mean that basic AP needs to be on most capable stack available (same as EAP) and all safety features must be enabled.
So how can Tesla justify a 6k upgrade to someone like me who tomorrow will drive 600km within Germany on 2 charging stops with AP enabled?
Yes I need to change lanes manually and clear slower cars - but so far I just put AP on 140km/h and stay on the 2nd left lane - works great for hours on end as trucks are all the way right - it's annoying and technically not fully legal (to not clear the middle lane if all lanes are free) - but I wouldn't pay 6k just to enable lane changes for me. (and maybe construction sides, adaptive speed limits etc ...)

Not sure about US market - but in EU all countries except Germany have <140kmh speed limits anyway - so outside of germany it's even less annoying to stay in a lane statically with AP for longer times.

After thinking a bit - does "hands off" mean "L3 on highways"?

THAT would peek my interested - still not sure what to do with hands-off time were I need to stay ready to take over, but I would like to find out if the experience is worth it.

Basic autopilot is no longer something you can order. I’m sure it will be supported but Tesla won’t want to put much effort into it. It won’t be hands free; $6k will be absolute minimum for such a useful product.

I think it is equally likely that EAP is also phased out (and supported in a limited way). This could be proactive or reactive to a very likely safety issue where transitions between EAP, FSD and manual cause accidents (mostly human error). The options could include:

1. Bull case
   1. SEXY
      1. EAP - $6k
      2. Private FSD - $25k
      3. Tesla Network (owner) - $100k
   2. Robotaxi
      1. As above
2. Super bull case
   1. SEXY
      1. EAP - $6k
      2. Private FSD - $25k
      3. Tesla Network (owner) - $100k
   2. Robotaxi
      1. Private FSD - $25k
      2. Tesla Network (owner) - $100k
3. Hyper bull case
   1. SEXY
      1. Tesla Network (owner) - $100k
   2. Robotaxi
      1. Fleet >90% owned by Tesla

Hyper bull case is not popular here most likely - perhaps because Tesla would need to organise cleaning etc.

 

[Buckminster]

If EAP goes hands free earlier than FSD, CT delivery event in September would be a great time to launch.

 

[JRP3]

Basic autopilot is no longer something you can order. I’m sure it will be supported but Tesla won’t want to put much effort into it.

Shouldn't Basic Autopilot eventually be the same stack as FSD but with limited functions?

 

[Knightshade]

After thinking a bit - does "hands off" mean "L3 on highways"?

THAT would peek my interested - still not sure what to do with hands-off time were I need to stay ready to take over, but I would like to find out if the experience is worth it.

That was my question too... and the actual thing I bought FSD in hopes of getting eventually back in 2018.

But if they're gonna be conservative about it liability wise then it'd just mean literally what we have today but they turn off the steering wheel nags and rely on just interior cam for driver monitoring.

Which I suppose would mean folks in older S/X with no interior cam can't have it?

 

[EVNow]

Fast forward 2 years: Prices could be:

• EAP $6k
• FSD for private use $25k
• Tesla Networked Robotaxi $100k (assuming owner receives 70% of revenue and Tesla don't own the fleet which is my preference)

EAP becomes the gateway drug at bargain basement prices.

If Tesla Robotaxi is available in 2 years, I'll eat my hat and post it on youtube

If its not available, will you do the same thing ?