FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

[Todd Burch]

Without being an AI expert myself, the way I envision it is that they would have a supervisor that implements rules-based logic and limits the outputs of the NNs. If the NN is asking for acceleration > some threshold, then the rules based can examine the outputs and see if it's doing it for some safety-based reason or if it's just accelerating too fast. The same if the NN suddenly wants to turn the steering wheel 90 degrees when driving on the highway. If so, it can just "disregard" the NN's command to the motors and clamp the max acceleration. There's a continuous feedback loop where the NN is updated on the current state of the car, so it would continue to update based on the new acceleration profile.

At some point, there needs to be some things done via rules, where a supervisor is telling the NN "yes you can do this" or "no you can't". How exactly that would work I couldn't say; it could be its own NN or something more procedural, but clearly you can't leave it all to some giant blob of a black box.

Yes, that is what I mean by C++ guardrail code.

 

[arbitrage000]

HellsKitchen on 4/2 reported that while on 2024.8.7 he signed up for the free trial and FSD 11.4.9 was enabled.


A couple of posts later he confirmed he was on 2024.8.7. Like I wrote, "someone reported..."

I noticed only that one report, so these question certainly deserves confirmation: Do 2024.8.x downloads include FSD 11? And, can someone on those versions start the free trial?

He signed up for FSD (I assume monthly sub)...he didn't start the free trial.

 

[enemji]

v12.3.3 on chill mode. Only city driving today. Apart from the parking situation, zero disengagements.

 

[enemji]

Without being an AI expert myself, the way I envision it is that they would have a supervisor that implements rules-based logic and limits the outputs of the NNs. If the NN is asking for acceleration > some threshold, then the rules based can examine the outputs and see if it's doing it for some safety-based reason or if it's just accelerating too fast. The same if the NN suddenly wants to turn the steering wheel 90 degrees when driving on the highway. If so, it can just "disregard" the NN's command to the motors and clamp the max acceleration. There's a continuous feedback loop where the NN is updated on the current state of the car, so it would continue to update based on the new acceleration profile.

At some point, there needs to be some things done via rules, where a supervisor is telling the NN "yes you can do this" or "no you can't". How exactly that would work I couldn't say; it could be its own NN or something more procedural, but clearly you can't leave it all to some giant blob of a black box.

I think that is what the supervising driver is supposed to be doing. Adding more code adds latency

 

[swedge]

No. Nobody can "start the free trial". Tesla enables it remotely when they want to. The owner/driver has no control over when it starts. I don't think Tesla will start the free trial for anyone not on FSDS v12.3.x.

I expected Tesla to use V12 for the free trial, but HellsKitchen's case sounded like a counter example. Or maybe his is a paid subscription? In which case he joined the ranks of V11.4.9 folks who are still not yet offered V12.

Perhaps the recently reported 12.3.4 might help some, but if that is only a 2024.3 version, HellsKitchen will have to wait for a merger of V12 into a 2024.8 +. Sigh.

If indeed the free trial is only for FSD 12, and Tesla really wants people to try it, they will need to do the merge to allow in the 50% of the fleet (in TeslaFi) who are already on 2024.8.x. If this is all true, I expect the merge is a vey high priority, and may happen soon.

Perhaps getting FSD 12.3 onto 2024 laid the foundation for a merge, and they are awaiting cleanup of some of the issues in 12.3.3 before going truly wide.

We'll see. But this fragmented fleet makes Tesla look chaotic. As did turning FSD on without in some profiles without user agreement. On the other hand, for Musk and Tesla, chaos sort of is the MO.

 

[MP3Mike]

I expected Tesla to use V12 for the free trial, but HellsKitchen's case sounded like a counter example. Or maybe his is a paid subscription? In which case he joined the ranks of V11.4.9 folks who are still not yet offered V12.

Yes, they confirmed that they subscribed to FSD to see what they would get, if anything. They are not on a free trial.

 

[FSDtester#1]

The visualization showed a spooky guy walking behind me as I drove 55 mph.

A few times the speed limit changed to 10 mph. I saved the dashcam, and I'll report back if I can figure out what happened.

What is Alan doing in your hood?

 

[Dewg]

The visualization showed a spooky guy walking behind me as I drove 55 mph.

Just had him following me too!

 

[arbitrage000]

I expected Tesla to use V12 for the free trial, but HellsKitchen's case sounded like a counter example. Or maybe his is a paid subscription? In which case he joined the ranks of V11.4.9 folks who are still not yet offered V12.

Perhaps the recently reported 12.3.4 might help some, but if that is only a 2024.3 version, HellsKitchen will have to wait for a merger of V12 into a 2024.8 +. Sigh.

If indeed the free trial is only for FSD 12, and Tesla really wants people to try it, they will need to do the merge to allow in the 50% of the fleet (in TeslaFi) who are already on 2024.8.x. If this is all true, I expect the merge is a vey high priority, and may happen soon.

Perhaps getting FSD 12.3 onto 2024 laid the foundation for a merge, and they are awaiting cleanup of some of the issues in 12.3.3 before going truly wide.

We'll see. But this fragmented fleet makes Tesla look chaotic. As did turning FSD on without in some profiles without user agreement. On the other hand, for Musk and Tesla, chaos sort of is the MO.

I think 50% is worldwide. Looking at similar cars to mine and in Canada pie chart there is ~21.8% on an 8.X branch. 67.8% on 3.10 trial branch.
Only cars in US and Canada are eligible for the free trial (and FSD in general). Cars in the rest of the world are moving onto the 8.X branch because they won't be getting a trial.
So still a significant portion of US/Can cars on 8.X without the trial but not half the fleet.

 

[TK211X]

I hope they fixed curbing. I've paid attention to curbs and see witness marks from bad drivers.

 

[Mardak]

Perhaps the recently reported 12.3.4 might help some, but if that is only a 2024.3 version

You can view TeslaFi details for a given version to see what countries and vehicles are getting it. It's a bit more work to figure out what's not getting a particular version, but so far it seems like 2024.8.x hasn't really gone to the new Model 3 in US, so TeslaFi shows these as "3 Highland" still on 2024.2.100 and 2024.2.7 that could update to 2024.3.15. Similarly, it seems like "3 Long Range DM LFP" in the US with HW4 are kept on 2024.2.200 (and 2024.2.7) also could be updating to 2024.3.x. So my guess is 12.3.4 is adding support for HW4 Model 3.

 

[kabin]

The majority of the cost is setting up new servers (buying chips, installing in racks, etc), once they finish scaling to the desired size the ongoing costs drop quite a bit.

On top of that the servers can be repurposed for the humanoid robot training if FSD becomes a solved problem moving costs to another project

On top of that if somehow FSD and the humanoid bot are both solved the hardware can be re-tasked to other companies (rented out AWS style).

Some of that may not come to pass, but its clear the ongoing costs will be less than the ramp up costs even if every existing server works on nothing but FSD from now until the end of time.

They also estimated ~$1B in Dojo which partially went down the porcelain drain. There likely won't be a drop off in training/workload demand and there will always be the normal tech obsolescence and ongoing need to update to the latest/expensive AI chip technology.

There likely won't be much demand renting resources from Tesla. And I doubt Tesla could even be a player or offer enough features, reliability, and security in the very competitive cloud world.

 

[Acisplat]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778162703699484820

12.3.4 is rolling out, including to legacy S/X

 

[MP3Mike]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778162703699484820

12.3.4 is rolling out, including to legacy S/X

43 pending installs on TeslaFi

 

[kabin]

FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

I think it can be as low as 0.5 seconds (reaction time here).

At best it might be an inconclusive deceleration for the left turn.

The funny thing is, I haven't seen anything proving v12 has less latency than v11 code with the infamous +300k lines of code. I've showed a few video cases showing that. The O'Downer team recently compared v12 to v11 reaction time and it's just as laggy and unresponsive as it ever was.

 

[JulienW]

Sounds like it is a "specialty" version for these cars since 12.3.3 didn't work on them (something about cameras????). So likely nothing "improved" for us users and bet it won't even be pushed to us. Still missing 3 BIG ONES:

• ALL 24.8.x
• Highland
• Cybertruck

Going to be kinda hard to pimp it to other OEM's when you can't even get it to work on all your own cars.

 

[Mengy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778162703699484820

12.3.4 is rolling out, including to legacy S/X

Didn't 12.3.4 just go out to Tesla employees a few days ago? That's a fast turnaround!

 

[Acisplat]

Didn't 12.3.4 just go out to Tesla employees a few days ago? That's a fast turnaround!

They're having a hard time fixing the curbing problem so I hope this addresses it
My car keeps going onto gravel on rural road turns

 

[petercc9]

It's strange to me but it seems to handle more complicated driving situations better than simple ones, as long as there is traffic to follow. I think I would still prefer to just drive myself on most of these drives, but this makes me more optimistic for robot-taxi after all.

Yes, i find when letting it drive and turn down narrow one and two way streets with cars parked on both sides and jaywalkers jumping out my stress level is far less than if it has to take a left turn on a mostly empty wide 2 way street. It hesitates more. It doesn't like wide streets. It likes being a NYC taxi driver negotiating an obstacle course like a maniac.

 

[Supcom]

Sounds like it is a "specialty" version for these cars since 12.3.3 didn't work on them (something about cameras????). So likely nothing "improved" for us users and bet it won't even be pushed to us. Still missing 3 BIG ONES:

• ALL 24.8.x
• Highland
• Cybertruck

Going to be kinda hard to pimp it to other OEM's when you can't even get it to work on all your own cars.

Teslafi already shows an M3 with HW3 getting this version, so most likely will actually be pushed out to everyone on 2024.3.10. Probably some improvements, even if the release notes don't mention anything. Maybe reduced curbage.