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Musk in February 2019:
“We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark.”

I’d describe that as Level 5, and it’s only one of many disastrously wrong predictions that he’s made over the years. And he wasn’t just talking about the US market. And for all the hype about FSD in the US it’s still only Level 2 autonomy.

I was promised “autosteer on city streets” for my car by the end of 2019 and I still haven’t got it. That’s why I, and many others on this forum, have taken Tesla to court to seek a refund for their dishonesty over Fake Self Driving.

So yes, I’d still be very unhappy if I had Level 2 FSD that they have in the US, and I’ve been hoping for a whole lot more. It’s clear we’re not going to get it in this country for very many years, if ever. And definitely not with HW3.
It's not level 5 if you actually include the full quote from Elon Musk: Full Self-Driving Teslas This Year, "Unequivocal" Tesla Autopilot Improves Safety - CleanTechnica

“I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year,” Musk said in the podcast interview. “Meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year. I would say I am certain of that. That is not a question mark. However, people sometimes will extrapolate that to mean now it works with 100 percent certainty, requires no observation, perfectly. This is not the case.”

He then went on to talk about federal and state regulators, so clearly was talking about the US Market, on a US investment podcast.

Why bother making stuff up?
 
Musk in February 2019:
“We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark.”

I’d describe that as Level 5, and it’s only one of many disastrously wrong predictions that he’s made over the years. And he wasn’t just talking about the US market. And for all the hype about FSD in the US it’s still only Level 2 autonomy.

I was promised “autosteer on city streets” for my car by the end of 2019 and I still haven’t got it. That’s why I, and many others on this forum, have taken Tesla to court to seek a refund for their dishonesty over Fake Self Driving.

So yes, I’d still be very unhappy if I had Level 2 FSD that they have in the US, and I’ve been hoping for a whole lot more. It’s clear we’re not going to get it in this country for very many years, if ever. And definitely not with HW3.
The bollocks he posts on Twitter / X is just him trying to drum up investment. What is on the Tesla website is just Autosteer on City streets which in the US at least they seem to have made some real progress with.

Not saying you don’t deserve a refund because you have nothing here in the UK and their definition of “Coming Soon” I don’t think would align with any reasonable view of that phrase. Or back to the time when they gave vague dates was even worse.

Just saying though, if you had what they get in the US, would you have taken them to court?
 
if you had what they get in the US, would you have taken them to court?

As a UK FSD owner, my main concern is not so much that we still don't have any progress from 3 or 4 years ago, but it really is now impossible to cling to the belief that you have FSD capable hardware with HW3.

Are Tesla really going to start a UK beta program based on HW3 at this stage of the game? Even if HW3 were to be the primary platform for 2 more years, having even HW4 being split off (as it clearly should be) means that money spent developing and testing FSD for UK would be a complete waste.

Listening to EM's shareholder presentation is almost unbearable for me. It wouldn't matter what he promised. As well as robo taxi future cars are going to spend their time super-computing?! To earn a bit more cash for their owners?
 
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As a UK FSD owner, my main concern is not so much that we still don't have any progress from 3 or 4 years ago, but it really is now impossible to cling to the belief that you have FSD capable hardware with HW3.

Are Tesla really going to start a UK beta program based on HW3 at this stage of the game? Even if HW3 were to be the primary platform for 2 more years, having even HW4 being split off (as it clearly should be) means that money spent developing and testing FSD for UK would be a complete waste.

Listening to EM's shareholder presentation is almost unbearable for me. It wouldn't matter what he promised. As well as robo taxi future cars are going to spend their time super-computing?! To earn a bit more cash for their owners?
Tricky one. In theory once they have this all to a level they are happy with, they might only have to run it a few times through their training computers to handle the UK and RHD. As you say though, the further out this is the less likely it is to happen for HW3 cars. They might just do it to avoid more lawsuits, don’t know. I’m not expecting any form of Tesla FSD in this country for 4 - 6 years.

Guess my question was more to someone that has taken Tesla to court or plans to, would they still do the same if what was available in the US was in the UK. Some seem to think and wouldn’t be happy until it’s Level 5 but nothing is going to get to level 5 that quickly. You’ve got to have a system that’s been through so much human testing and not needed manual intervention before you can safely ship that. Those driverless taxi’s in the US still have a human that can remotely take over when it gets stuck for some reason.

Maybe this is the answer. Sell you “FSD” for a £6k a year subscription. A person in a Tesla driving centre in India will actually take over and drive your car for you. When they are all busy it’ll claim the cameras are blocked and “FSD” isn’t available 😉 You’ll know this is the case when the car tells you it is going to do the needful.
 
Thats not how technology works.
Of course not.

But it is the way honesty works. Thousands of customers were promised that their cars would function with FSD with HW3 and HW4. Turns out that was a lie aimed at boosting stock prices and making the company seem like something it is not. A company that could provide Level 5 FSD at the end of 2019 would be very very impressive, and would be leading the industry.

But they did not do that. They lied.

2020: more lies
2021: more lies
2022: more lies
2023: more lies
2024: more lies.
2025 ?

Tesla is a company that is good at making a profit on an adequate if slightly-behind-the-times car with poor ergonomics. But what they are great at is lying.
 
The fact that there will be future hardware iterations means nothing at all about the software. Also your car from 2021 isn't going to be the best ever Tesla make.
I'm not sure what you meant to say here, but hardware and software always have to work together. Bloated software can only run on a relatively fast machine. The Microsoft/Intel lockstep collusion demonstrates this. Elon's admission that the current hardware is woefully inadequate demonstrates this as well.

Re "your car from 2021": Who knows what the best Tesla will be? The early roadsters are probably the most desirable and are the only ones that have appreciated in value. The Cybertruck is one disappoint after another. The trend has been from pretty good looking to hum drum to uuuugggly. Maybe the 2021 car was just about right, just before the beginning of the end.
 
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I think it’s going to depend on what your view is of FSD and Tesla’s view. He’s not promised level 5, it’s just a Tesla term.
What he described in 2019 is Level 5.

Musk in February 2019:
“We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark.”

How is that not a promise for Level 5 by the end of 2019?
 
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What he described in 2019 is Level 5.

Musk in February 2019:
“We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark.”

How is that not a promise for Level 5 by the end of 2019?
I have no skin in this game but that is not a description of level 5. It makes no reference to who is in control/responsible for the vehicle.

The only thing you can say is that it’s ambiguous. I don’t think Tesla have ever made the specific claim that the system will be level 5 in any of their materials.

I have only ever took it to be a a level 2 system, not that I’d buy/rent it until it was actually delivered.
 
someone that has taken Tesla to court or plans to, would they still do the same if what was available in the US was in the UK.

My response was based on questioning what the issue is. Hardware, software (or both). What they have in the US strikes me as being the result of a lengthy coaxing of software to try and make something work somewhere. My ownership experience suggests that in the UK there are so many (may be small) differences (road layout conventions, position and type of speed / warning signs, condition of road markings, frequency of changes to lane markings at roundabouts, narrower roads with close / tall structures, bus stops etc etc), that to have 'what they have in the US' would likely not be any use in the UK.

If your question is 'if the functions apparently available in the US were available and worked in the UK, would I be satisfied that Tesla has met its claims' I would say 'I doubt it' because the demands of UK roads most likely need a much higher level of performance.

If Tesla had even demonstrated a solid commitment to getting even certain FSD features working reliably in the UK, I might be prepared to accept that. But with NOTHING to show in the UK and even EAP features that don't work......


Elon's admission that........

Elon doesn't admit stuff. He just manipulates!
 
My response was based on questioning what the issue is. Hardware, software (or both). What they have in the US strikes me as being the result of a lengthy coaxing of software to try and make something work somewhere. My ownership experience suggests that in the UK there are so many (may be small) differences (road layout conventions, position and type of speed / warning signs, condition of road markings, frequency of changes to lane markings at roundabouts, narrower roads with close / tall structures, bus stops etc etc), that to have 'what they have in the US' would likely not be any use in the UK.
The reason Tesla has gone down the end-to-end neural network route is for precisely this reason. They don't need to teach it what all these bits and pieces are, they're implicitly included in the training. So in general it'll do the same as a human does, which is to improvise carefully. None of the training data from the US will be used here.

If I'm in the wrong lane at a roundabout because of dodgy lane markings, I'll carefully and apologetically force my way into the correct lane if I can, or go all the way around or ultimately leave at the wrong exit and fix it later. I'd expect the self-driving to do the same. Really ropey road markings on motorways? Follow the car in front. No lead car? Pick a position about a third of the way out and drive carefully.

The great thing about this is that with sufficient training data and computing capacity all the weird British bits of driving will be accounted for out of the box (in theory...)
 
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The UN GRVA committee is due to formally meet on Tue 25th next week for an hour having had a working trip to Troy, Michigan between 20–24th May to experience FSD Supervised among other things. Rather fascinated to see what impact, if any, that has on the regulation framework text due to be enacted in October. Minor inconvenience of a UK election delaying the 6 months permitted for Transport Secretary to appoint a self-driving advisory board aside.
 
I have no skin in this game but that is not a description of level 5. It makes no reference to who is in control/responsible for the vehicle.

The only thing you can say is that it’s ambiguous. I don’t think Tesla have ever made the specific claim that the system will be level 5 in any of their materials.

I have only ever took it to be a a level 2 system, not that I’d buy/rent it until it was actually delivered.
I could make a case that those words could be interpretted as a L4 claim, the words do say "..pick you up.." which does imply you're not in the car at the beginniong. I think it also goes on to say it goes and parks itself, again implying without you in it, L3 requires the ability to hand back quickly so isn't open to driverless, and L5 requires "in all conditions" which is a bit of a stretch,

But its traditional Tesla, they like to use imprecise and open to interpretation words whilst trying to sound authoriative. I've never once heard them refer the SAE levels in the capability other than in formal submissions where they've admitted to being L2.
 
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The UN GRVA committee is due to formally meet on Tue 25th next week for an hour having had a working trip to Troy, Michigan between 20–24th May to experience FSD Supervised among other things. Rather fascinated to see what impact, if any, that has on the regulation framework text due to be enacted in October. Minor inconvenience of a UK election delaying the 6 months permitted for Transport Secretary to appoint a self-driving advisory board aside.
I have a hunch they'll just double down on the Mercedes approach to start limited and constrained and slowly widen the envelope whilst maybe allowing some heavily goverened, manufacturer owned test vehicles with plenty of fall back ie the Waymo type model. I think its the only responsible way to go too. The idea of sanctioning a million+ cars to have an unattentive driver all of a sudden is reckless and not in keeping with the generally cautious nature of regulatory bodies.
 
end-to-end neural network route

But even a fully trained NN needs usable images to work with.

For close up objects like hedges, walls etc, I expect you need a very fast 'shutter speed' to avoid the equivalent of motion blur.

I doubt HW3 can process images fast enough. Probably less of an issue with US streets where everything is typically set well back from the traffic lanes.
 
What he described in 2019 is Level 5.

Musk in February 2019:
“We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark.”

How is that not a promise for Level 5 by the end of 2019?
Because as I already showed you his next sentence in the same quote was "However, people sometimes will extrapolate that to mean now it works with 100 percent certainty, requires no observation, perfectly. This is not the case.” - this is precisely him saying it won't be Level 5.

I agree that Elon make wildly optimistic predictions, and there are very many things that Tesla has done that are pretty shocking. Although not effected personally the folks who are still waiting for autopark etc on their Tesla Vision for nearly 2 years is outrageous. What doesn't help though is mis-stating and mis-attributing things to him. We don't need to do it given the easily demonstrable real ways Tesla have misled customers with web pages that said 'by end of year' in 2019 for example.
 
Musk in February 2019:
“We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark.”

I’d describe that as Level 5, and it’s only one of many disastrously wrong predictions that he’s made over the years. And he wasn’t just talking about the US market. And for all the hype about FSD in the US it’s still only Level 2 autonomy.

I was promised “autosteer on city streets” for my car by the end of 2019 and I still haven’t got it. That’s why I, and many others on this forum, have taken Tesla to court to seek a refund for their dishonesty over Fake Self Driving.

So yes, I’d still be very unhappy if I had Level 2 FSD that they have in the US, and I’ve been hoping for a whole lot more. It’s clear we’re not going to get it in this country for very many years, if ever. And definitely not with HW3.
He's made a ton of claims/predictions like this. See below.
Elon Musk Today from 2016
Elon Musk Today from 2016
Elon Musk Today from later in 2016
Elon Musk Today from late 2018
Elon Musk Today from 2019

And, how many of these happened so far in now that we're in 2024?
I was involved in developing some stuff that passed for AI in the first wave of investment in AI (early 80's. ) Then, the industry was loaded with jargon-spewing hucksters who were selling vaporware. The climate seems exactly the same now. Elon has been promising full self-driving by the end of the year every year, year after year after year, for about a decade. Replacing 300,000 lines of code (only a small part of which functioned well, because it was poorly written) with "end to end neural networks" has been presented as a panacea, and many people buy that, despite there being no evidence that doing so will fix things. The average Tesla customer may swallow Elon's claim that they are a software company more than a car company, but he has proven, year after year after year, that their software does not work.

"Full Self Driving" has a clear, widely accepted meaning. If you are selling "full self driving" and the car does not drive itself without intervention, then you are lying. The first Level 3 car in the US is a Mercedes. Tesla is at Level 2. Full self driving is Level 5. I know of one gullible family who thought that FSD would be a good thing for the new drivers in the family! They think it is a safety feature!!! Fools and their money.
Yep, And, when some moderator like Robotaxi? Really?? gets wind of stuff like this, he wants to shut down a discussion.

Hugh Mannity never answered my questions at Robotaxi? Really??.
 
The issue is that none of these claims or aspirations are on the product page for FSD. They can easily be argued away that they are just long term aspirations for the product or another upcoming product called robotaxi.

Don’t get me wrong, U.K. FSD purchases should 100% get a refund if they want one but that’s only because they have failed to deliver the product when they said they would.

The ‘FSD’ product is Autopilot (which IS level 2 and always has been) plus auto park, smart summon and autopilot on city streets.

I find it hard to get behind any notion that FSD was going to be anything other than level 2 when the core of the product is level 2 and makes no claims that it would be otherwise.