Autopilot is getting worse, not better.

[Battpower]

Not forgetting this is in a UK tread, pretty much everything put forward by marketing teams and senior exec's has to contribute to setting expectations for products or clearly qualified by official statements. There will always be an element of 'buyer beware' needed, but FSD was discussed and promoted as a specific (albeit changing and ambiguous) set of current and future features.

In the UK, even the 'current' features don't / didn't work, but there were no UK specific marketing claims made for 'UK FSD'.

EM likes to appear involved, hands on and right 'in the know' which he needs to be if he is to convince shareholders about what future expectations should be. He can't be knowledgeable and trustworthy as well as disingenuous simultaneously & /or to different groups of people.

 

[Alset2go]

Not forgetting this is in a UK tread, pretty much everything put forward by marketing teams and senior exec's has to contribute to setting expectations for products or clearly qualified by official statements. There will always be an element of 'buyer beware' needed, but FSD was discussed and promoted as a specific (albeit changing and ambiguous) set of current and future features.

In the UK, even the 'current' features don't / didn't work, but there were no UK specific marketing claims made for 'UK FSD'.

EM likes to appear involved, hands on and right 'in the know' which he needs to be if he is to convince shareholders about what future expectations should be. He can't be knowledgeable and trustworthy as well as disingenuous simultaneously & /or to different groups of people.

I hope this does not include any Tesla error eg phantom style or people will have autopilot disengaging due to it being sunny and shadows.

 

[Tony Hoyle]

It includes if you're wearing glasses and Tesla therefore thinks you're not looking at the road because it can't see your eyes.

I've covered the internal camera after that particular strikeout... at the time the 7 day forgiveness thing wasn't there - it was 5 strikeouts in the lifetime of the car..

 

[SalisburySam]

I’m sure once they’ve finished training it, it’ll drive only in the middle lane, almost rub its bumper against the car in-front it’s following, not indicate on roundabouts and drive 40mph in a 30 / 40 / 50 and 60. It’ll be one of us in no time.

So…a really slow version of NASCAR*?

*NASCAR - for those outside the US, this is the governing body for a US-based, widely-enjoyed car racing paradigm on enclosed banked tracks where the most valued driving skills are called “bump & draft” and left turns. Sort of like FIFA with smaller lawsuits.

 

[SalisburySam]

He can't be knowledgeable and trustworthy as well as disingenuous simultaneously & /or to different groups of people.

…and yet miraculously he is, can, and does.

 

[qwickshot]

I'm not sure if you are being intentionally deceptive or pedantic here by using the words "any of their materials." I consider Musk's recorded words from investor conferences to be "Tesla" making a specific claim. (You may say that a video of him speaking is not their "materials".) Otherwise, if saner people in the corporation realized that Elon was merely confused, you'd expect a responsible person in the corporation to walk back Elon's ludicrous claims the day after the conference call. That has not happened. He has used the words level 4 and 5, and it is hard to believe that he is so stupid that he does not know what those levels mean: every person with serious interest in autonomous vehicles knows exactly what those level designations mean.

Level 3 means that driver interventions are required at times. Levels 4 and 5 mean that driver interventions are not required. If a CEO says that his corporation will make cars that can operate in full autonomy, anywhere, with no interventions required, then he is saying that those cars operate at level 5. That is unambiguous. Elon has made such claims repeatedly since 2016. The quote from 2019 above in this thread is incredibly unambiguous.

If you genuinely do not understand the SAE levels, this article includes a chart that describes them well:
Elon Musk believes Tesla will have 'level 4 or 5' self-driving this year - what does that mean?

Statements by musk at investor events do not form part of the contract you enter into with Tesla when you buy auto pilot/FSD.

Only the features listed on the FSD purchase page form part of the product you are buying. These have always fit the level 2 definition, the driver is always in control.

I’m not denying that Musk hasn’t spoken about future product development but it’s irrelevant. These features he is talking about go well beyond what’s you are buying when you buy FSD as it’s described on the product page. What’s on the product page when you buy it IS the only thing which is relevant to what you are buying.

Any conversation beyond that is just that, just it doesn’t change what you have bought and Tesla or anyone else is under any obligation to provide features over and above what’s listed on the product page when you bought it.

All of the above is only really relevant in the US anyway as we can’t get it over here. If you pre-ordered it in the U.K., get a refund if you can.

 

[MrBadger]

Statements by musk at investor events do not form part of the contract you enter into with Tesla when you buy auto pilot/FSD.

Only the features listed on the FSD purchase page form part of the product you are buying. These have always fit the level 2 definition, the driver is always in control.

Oh yes they can. ANY communication by ANY representative of a company made at ANY time can form part of the contract.

It’s no different to walking into a Tesla showroom and the Tesla representative saying it had a 1000 mile range. If that statement had a bearing on your decision to purchase, then it forms part of the contract.

The issue is normally proving that the statement has been made, but in the case of EM, that’s normally not that difficult.

There may sometimes be a get out with “future promise”, but in case where a future deliverable has been described as a fact, then I think that would be difficult to argue without calling into question whether the promise was fraudulent or not - it’s usually settled as a gesture of goodwill.

All above is UK point of view.

From a moral point of view, Tesla should simply admit that they got it wrong and offer a full refund with compensation. Instead they fight the claims which leads to more bad feelings from the customer point of view. They really know how to shoot themselves in the foot.

 

[FastLaneJB]

I'm not sure if you are being intentionally deceptive or pedantic here by using the words "any of their materials." I consider Musk's recorded words from investor conferences to be "Tesla" making a specific claim. (You may say that a video of him speaking is not their "materials".) Otherwise, if saner people in the corporation realized that Elon was merely confused, you'd expect a responsible person in the corporation to walk back Elon's ludicrous claims the day after the conference call. That has not happened. He has used the words level 4 and 5, and it is hard to believe that he is so stupid that he does not know what those levels mean: every person with serious interest in autonomous vehicles knows exactly what those level designations mean.

Level 3 means that driver interventions are required at times. Levels 4 and 5 mean that driver interventions are not required. If a CEO says that his corporation will make cars that can operate in full autonomy, anywhere, with no interventions required, then he is saying that those cars operate at level 5. That is unambiguous. Elon has made such claims repeatedly since 2016. The quote from 2019 above in this thread is incredibly unambiguous.

If you genuinely do not understand the SAE levels, this article includes a chart that describes them well:
Elon Musk believes Tesla will have 'level 4 or 5' self-driving this year - what does that mean?

Assuming Tesla doesn't go bust and is in this for the long game, they will make a level 4 and level 5 car at some point. Seems inevitable. What did it say in any paperwork or website when you ordered your car and FSD? Did it promise you level 4 / 5? No I don't think it did.

I think where they've got to is actually pretty good, I think we are still a good ways off it being safe to climb in the back and have a kip though.

 

[FastLaneJB]

Oh yes they can. ANY communication by ANY representative of a company made at ANY time can form part of the contract.

It’s no different to walking into a Tesla showroom and the Tesla representative saying it had a 1000 mile range. If that statement had a bearing on your decision to purchase, then it forms part of the contract.

The issue is normally proving that the statement has been made, but in the case of EM, that’s normally not that difficult.

There may sometimes be a get out with “future promise”, but in case where a future deliverable has been described as a fact, then I think that would be difficult to argue without calling into question whether the promise was fraudulent or not - it’s usually settled as a gesture of goodwill.

All above is UK point of view.

From a moral point of view, Tesla should simply admit that they got it wrong and offer a full refund with compensation. Instead they fight the claims which leads to more bad feelings from the customer point of view. They really know how to shoot themselves in the foot.

They have to fight because they don't want to refund everyone. They'd probably argue that if you keep your car, it will come as long as you've got HW3 as a minimum.

Having been through what you say with Lotus, you would have to take them to court because big companies don't listen to the small people without it.

 

[FastLaneJB]

So…a really slow version of NASCAR*?

*NASCAR - for those outside the US, this is the governing body for a US-based, widely-enjoyed car racing paradigm on enclosed banked tracks where the most valued driving skills are called “bump & draft” and left turns. Sort of like FIFA with smaller lawsuits.

We know what NASCAR is, we just like to also turn right as well. It adds more to the entertainment

 

[Battpower]

come as long as you've got HW3 as a minimum

That is what they would say. But after EM's recent shareholder meeting statements combined with evidence of progress over past years with FSD b in USA, I don't see how Tesla can keep a straight face while claiming FSD b will ever see UK streets with HW3. If HW4 development is due to be split off from HW3, what possible commercial sense could there be in investing years getting UK FSB b running on HW3 that by then will firmly be 'legacy'?

 

[FastLaneJB]

That is what they would say. But after EM's recent shareholder meeting statements combined with evidence of progress over past years with FSD b in USA, I don't see how Tesla can keep a straight face while claiming FSD b will ever see UK streets with HW3. If HW4 development is due to be split off from HW3, what possible commercial sense could there be in investing years getting UK FSB b running on HW3 that by then will firmly be 'legacy'?

Guess it depends on how quickly they plan to drop HW3. They claim they still haven't maxed out what it's capable of so it's not holding them back currently. I think they'll continue to work on it for a few years yet still.

When HW5 / AI5 comes out I suspect that'll be like HW4 and run in emulation of HW4 for a few years. They need to wait until there's a critical mass in vehicles before they will even have enough data to start training them on.

HW4 might be more powerful but not sure it'll be better initially, depends how much data they have for it and how much effort they put I'm before releasing it. It might be worse than HW3 training for a while until it catches up and surpasses.

If the law allows it in say 2 - 3 years then I think they'll do some HW3 training for UK alongside HW4 and potentially 5. If not then yes maybe HW3 will end up just being too old by that point.

 

[Battpower]

I'd like to think UK FSD b city streets was a possibility. In a best case scenario where the only constraint was getting rubber stamp approval from regulators, then 2-3 years of training for UK use might be a faint possibility.

But just look at where things are in the US after several years beta and public beta. How many versions have been an end to end rewrite that would address all the issues? How many false dawns only for progress to be either stalled or going backwards depending on which view you believe?

So even an optimistic view would have to allow for UK and European beta testing for a year or two followed by public beta if all goes fairly smoothly. By that time Tesla will need to be splitting off HW4 to run natively so development will need to focus on HW4. Given the now acknowledged limitations of HW3 and that many HW3 cars will then be well outside warranty, I'm affraid I just don't see any justification for putting any effort into UK FSD.

 

[FastLaneJB]

I'd like to think UK FSD b city streets was a possibility. In a best case scenario where the only constraint was getting rubber stamp approval from regulators, then 2-3 years of training for UK use might be a faint possibility.

But just look at where things are in the US after several years beta and public beta. How many versions have been an end to end rewrite that would address all the issues? How many false dawns only for progress to be either stalled or going backwards depending on which view you believe?

So even an optimistic view would have to allow for UK and European beta testing for a year or two followed by public beta if all goes fairly smoothly. By that time Tesla will need to be splitting off HW4 to run natively so development will need to focus on HW4. Given the now acknowledged limitations of HW3 and that many HW3 cars will then be well outside warranty, I'm affraid I just don't see any justification for putting any effort into UK FSD.

They won’t have to retread all the failed ways they attempted this in the US. It seems like the way they’ve settled on now seems to work very well and now it’s just a case of more data, more training and more refinement.

Won’t be anything here soon though sadly.

 

[parsec]

They won’t have to retread all the failed ways they attempted this in the US. It seems like the way they’ve settled on now seems to work very well and now it’s just a case of more data, more training and more refinement.

They haven't settled on anything in the US. AI5 (at least) will be required for functional FSD, but AI5 is not yet available.

 

[FastLaneJB]

They haven't settled on anything in the US. AI5 (at least) will be required for functional FSD, but AI5 is not yet available.

Yes they have, end to end neural networks trained on videos of humans driving. AI5 will be better but the approach is likely to be the same.

 

[GlynG]

Well, I quite liked the comment from @Battpower that stated FSD b - now just add the S for Supervised and you get FSD BS - and I think that's at long last an accurate statement.

 

[Battpower]

They haven't settled on anything in the US. AI5 (at least) will be required for functional FSD, but AI5 is not yet available.

That's how I read it too. In fact, my interpretation is more like:

'HW3 can't do the job (inc. compute power, sensor type / location and design). HW4 is the current best shot at addressing this but native mode software not ready and not enough resource to push HW3 patches while working on HW4 native, so for now HW4 runs HW3 emulation. If HW4 is aiming to eventually do what HW3 should have done (arguably L3?) , HW5 (name doesn't really matter) is the platform that might actually manage L4+'.

And this only relates to US / current FSD b locations. UK.... Might as well say HW5 will be the platform that finally gets developed in broader markets.

 

[parsec]

Yes they have, end to end neural networks trained on videos of humans driving. AI5 will be better but the approach is likely to be the same.

You said "the way they’ve settled on now seems to work very well." FSD does not work well in the US, and Musk has indicated that it cannot work with HW3 or HW4, and that the 10 times greater compute of an imagined AI5 could perhaps make it work. But he has been saying such things since 2016. Every year there is a new excuse for its not working. The imagined AI5 and end-to-end neural networks might eventually work, but history strongly suggests that it will not, and that there will be many modifications of the computing hardware/software architecture before it does, This is, after all, a company that cannot design a reliable, orders-of-magnitude simpler system: rain sensing wipers.

Here in the US, Mercedes leads in self-driving tech. But GM and Ford have credible offerings that are not hyped and oversold in the way the Tesla offerings have been and continue to be. Based upon actual performance, one would expect that Mercedes will produce a real Full Self Driving system (i.e., SAE Level 5) first, followed by Ford and GM. I haven't followed what the other manufacturers are doing, but Tesla might be a little ahead of some of them. The next decade will be an interesting one.

 

[FastLaneJB]

You said "the way they’ve settled on now seems to work very well." FSD does not work well in the US, and Musk has indicated that it cannot work with HW3 or HW4, and that the 10 times greater compute of an imagined AI5 could perhaps make it work. But he has been saying such things since 2016. Every year there is a new excuse for its not working. The imagined AI5 and end-to-end neural networks might eventually work, but history strongly suggests that it will not, and that there will be many modifications of the computing hardware/software architecture before it does, This is, after all, a company that cannot design a reliable, orders-of-magnitude simpler system: rain sensing wipers.

Here in the US, Mercedes leads in self-driving tech. But GM and Ford have credible offerings that are not hyped and oversold in the way the Tesla offerings have been and continue to be. Based upon actual performance, one would expect that Mercedes will produce a real Full Self Driving system (i.e., SAE Level 5) first, followed by Ford and GM. I haven't followed what the other manufacturers are doing, but Tesla might be a little ahead of some of them. The next decade will be an interesting one.

All the videos on YouTube suggest otherwise or are you still demanding that it must be level 5?