FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[HitchHiker71]

I wonder when support for temporary flashing red lights will come? Definitely not supported so far!

If you have the traffic and stop sign beta option enabled - it works with flashing red lights. I was using FSD with two flashing four way red-light intersections on 11.3.6 the other day (also two four-way stop sign intersections). I had to intervene on the first one - as it was a crowded intersection and FSD was too timid and wouldn't go - kept sitting at "waiting for our turn..." too long and someone else would go instead. The other less crowded four way flashing red-light intersection - FSD was able to navigate it without issue. Same with four way stop-sign intersections. Seems to not do so well on crowded intersections in general - but if there's not a ton of traffic - it was able to handle it without any issue IME. On one of the four-way stop sign intersections - I did notice that FSD started into the intersection at the same time as a car in the oncoming direction - however that car had it's turn signal on and was making a left hand turn - and FSD didn't process it - so I had to intervene and stop the vehicle to allow the oncoming car to execute it's left hand turn in the middle of the intersection. So it's not perfect with four-way intersections - especially when they are busy IME.

 

[rlsd]

To be fair, Elon originally said FSD Beta would get a new update every two weeks. That didn't last long, but the expectation is driven by Elon continuously saying a new update is coming, when it doesn't, coupled with bad experiences with the current build.

Can you sue Elon for what he said?

 

[uscbucsfan]

Can you sue Elon for what he said?

I'm sure one could, but that's not the point I'm making. The expectations come from Elon...I'm still waiting on the software version to activate the airbag horn on my Model S he promised, despite Tesla and Sandy Munro confirming the mechanism doesn't exist.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

it works with flashing red lights. I was using FSD with two flashing four way red-light intersections on 11.3.6 the other day (also two four-way stop sign intersections).

Right. But that was not what I was referring to. I was referring to fully controlled intersections that are flashing red. Due to the Purewater toilet-to-tap project in SD, Miramar road is full of these so FSD ends up unusable (at night).

Not that I care. Just a missing feature, that is all (and it is in the same class as following cones and being cautious in construction zones, except it should be easier). Probably too much risk I guess.

 

[PACEMD]

Can you sue Elon for what he said?

You can sue anybody for anything...........

Why not a class action lawsuit for being too big for his britches?

 

[JulienW]

You can sue anybody for anything...........why not just a class action lawsuit for being too big for his britches?

He has an iron clad defense. He is on Ozempic.

 

[Dewg]

Tesla has so much riding on FSD's success. Gotta wonder if Elon transitioned from an honest 'cup half full' personality to a desperate opportunistic liar.

I keep hearing people say this, but I'm curious why they think that? Previous salty TMC members used to spout that the take-rate for FSD was sub 10% (I think they kept saying 7 or 8%). If those numbers are true, Tesla stands to lose less than 10% of its market, as the other 90+% are buying Teslas because of other things and not FSD.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I keep hearing people say this, but I'm curious why they think that? Previous salty TMC members used to spout that the take-rate for FSD was sub 10% (I think they kept saying 7 or 8%). If those numbers are true, Tesla stands to lose less than 10% of its market, as the other 90+% are buying Teslas because of other things and not FSD.

Elon has said in the past that much of Tesla's valuation is on the premise of Robotaxi. There are many investors who feel the same and it's why so many buy in every year that "this is the year".

How much of that is factual, I don't know, because the market doesn't really react to FSD Beta news (good or bad) much. In fact, the more Elon talks to it, the worse the stock seems to do. The stock reacts better to NACs adoption, beating delivery estimates, new vehicles, and profit margins, like it should. I do think many are overly excited and optimistic about FSD Beta licensing to "major automakers". It's just not there, yet.

 

[PACEMD]

He has an iron clad defense. He is on Ozempic.

Ooooooooooh, the old Ozempic defense..........classic...........

 

[Dewg]

Got it, so "Tesla has so much riding on FSD success" is just for stock holders and investors and not actual customers buying the cars.

 

[MP3Mike]

FSDb drove to the dentist with no events. It was only 6 miles but there was a constructing zone. Even my insurance rated good:

The acceleration was turning right on red where it gave a big boost after creeping.

 

[PACEMD]

FSDb drove to the dentist with no events.

So did FSDb get a root canal? I'll be curious if this helps it's attitude...........

Some counseling might also help.

 

[bobsmy]

15 mile drive early today with no interventions. Car changed lane into then out of slip lane 4 times when route was straight, attempted one incorrect right turn only to continue back straight at last minute and on left turn into incorrect lane. BUT since there was little traffic I had no interventions.

 

[jebinc]

Good f'n damn, 23.26.10 is getting 11.4.4 and I'm also on 11.4.4 BUT stuck with 23.7.20 and NO road out and CAN'T update. That is some stinking a$$ bull s$it.

Yep, no road out…

 

[jebinc]

I'll be so mad when 11.4.7 comes out in 2023.7.X.

Yep, expecting another round of BOHICA.

 

[jebinc]

Given what most signs like that look like in HW3 cameras vs in HW4 ones I'm not sure I'd hold my breath for significant additional sign reading coming to HW3. I suppose right on red would be among the easier ones since at least in theory the car isn't moving when it reads it?





Seems to me that's a BAD sign for 11.4.7. If it was close to ready why would they roll 11.4.4 to a bunch of cars instead?

They need to show progress, somehow!

 

[jebinc]

Elon has said in the past that much of Tesla's valuation is on the premise of Robotaxi. There are many investors who feel the same and it's why so many buy in every year that "this is the year".

How much of that is factual, I don't know, because the market doesn't really react to FSD Beta news (good or bad) much. In fact, the more Elon talks to it, the worse the stock seems to do. The stock reacts better to NACs adoption, beating delivery estimates, new vehicles, and profit margins, like it should. I do think many are overly excited and optimistic about FSD Beta licensing to "major automakers". It's just not there, yet.

But recently, the “Great Charlatan” is singing a new and different tune - that much of Tesla’s valuation is from the TeslaBot. Serious, this was said at either the earnings call or investors Conference about four months back.

 

[kabin]

Elon has said in the past that much of Tesla's valuation is on the premise of Robotaxi. There are many investors who feel the same and it's why so many buy in every year that "this is the year".

How much of that is factual, I don't know, because the market doesn't really react to FSD Beta news (good or bad) much. In fact, the more Elon talks to it, the worse the stock seems to do. The stock reacts better to NACs adoption, beating delivery estimates, new vehicles, and profit margins, like it should. I do think many are overly excited and optimistic about FSD Beta licensing to "major automakers". It's just not there, yet.

Yes, FSD doesn't seem to move the needle. Last I heard TSLA was keeping FSD sales/subscription info close to the chest. At one point they said 285k FSD sales but that was likely a cumulative number with many sold at less than the current $15k price. Elon was expecting 1 million FSD sales by the end of 2022.

 

[fasteddie7]

Not as f'n weird as us that have 11.4.4/23.7.20, but you are close. This is a mess and makes me pissed off. Well at least not pissed on.

I feel like those on 11.4.x now should skip this one if prompted if they want to stay on the 11.4.6 and above train. You’re right about the mess. At this points they should reassign these tracks to the standard and advanced updates to take the confusion/frustration out of this.

 

[LSDTester#1]

Yes. Ya think, therefore ya am! Or as it's better known on the streets cogito, ergo sum! But Spinoza wasn't having any of that........

I really wanna party with you