FSD Beta v11.x

Scott Chapman · Dec 20, 2022

Yea, there is VERY little action on the 40.x branches now, everything appears to have moved to 44.25.x

swedge · Dec 20, 2022

Scott Chapman said:
Yea, I just don't see a ton of evidence that FSDb has been tested much at all on the highway.

Good point!

Some thoughts on this issue: The standard AutoPilot-on-highways has been around for a long time and has a well established safety record. It does have eccentricities which I, for one, long to see improved upon. But it seems to me that before rolling out an entirely new version based on the FSDb code, Tesla would want to be pretty darn sure that the new version is at least as safe and capable as the old one.

"Safety" is generally measured in small numbers of crashes and deaths per million miles of driving. Statistics 1A says it will take many, many millions of miles of driving on the new version to be certain that is is, in fact as safe as the old. This would seem to argue for a phased roll-out: simulation, in house testers, employees, slowly enlarging volunteer customers, etc. Each phase gives better statistical certainty while minimizing the risk of harming the testers or other drivers. Because the important testing has to be done on public roads, the public shares the risk. So a very cautious roll-out seems necessary.

I also wonder about the effects of higher speeds in the highway environment will affect the performance of the FSD code. What works at lower speeds may simply not work, or need substantial adjustments. For example, higher speed means it must see problems at greater distances, and reactions must be gentler, making a larger volume in which objects must be recognized and tracked, and the responses must be different than when at lower speeds. The way FSD yanks sometimes on the steering wheel would put a car into an uncontrollable twizzle-spin if not a roll-over, not a good maneuver on a crowded interstate. One of those caught on a dash cam might well end the entire FSD project.

So, just maybe, there are multiple practical issues which make "single stack" V11 extra tricky to get to market. Tesla had it a bit easier when the fleet was small and growing. But a premature release to even the current FSDb testers could be a disaster.

Like I said, these are just some thoughts. I do expect it will work, but for now I am trying to rally my patience.

SW

Supcom · Dec 20, 2022

swedge said:
Good point!

Some thoughts on this issue: The standard AutoPilot-on-highways has been around for a long time and has a well established safety record. It does have eccentricities which I, for one, long to see improved upon. But it seems to me that before rolling out an entirely new version based on the FSDb code, Tesla would want to be pretty darn sure that the new version is at least as safe and capable as the old one.

"Safety" is generally measured in small numbers of crashes and deaths per million miles of driving. Statistics 1A says it will take many, many millions of miles of driving on the new version to be certain that is is, in fact as safe as the old. This would seem to argue for a phased roll-out: simulation, in house testers, employees, slowly enlarging volunteer customers, etc. Each phase gives better statistical certainty while minimizing the risk of harming the testers or other drivers. Because the important testing has to be done on public roads, the public shares the risk. So a very cautious roll-out seems necessary.

I also wonder about the effects of higher speeds in the highway environment will affect the performance of the FSD code. What works at lower speeds may simply not work, or need substantial adjustments. For example, higher speed means it must see problems at greater distances, and reactions must be gentler, making a larger volume in which objects must be recognized and tracked, and the responses must be different than when at lower speeds. The way FSD yanks sometimes on the steering wheel would put a car into an uncontrollable twizzle-spin if not a roll-over, not a good maneuver on a crowded interstate. One of those caught on a dash cam might well end the entire FSD project.

So, just maybe, there are multiple practical issues which make "single stack" V11 extra tricky to get to market. Tesla had it a bit easier when the fleet was small and growing. But a premature release to even the current FSDb testers could be a disaster.

Like I said, these are just some thoughts. I do expect it will work, but for now I am trying to rally my patience.

SW

Whatever problems exist with V11 must be pretty significant as there has been no word of updates since the original 11 Nov releases. No public testers seem to be involved yet. If V11 was about to be released, we would expect to have seen multiple releases to beta testers so that Tesla could get widespread test data from interstates across the country in a diverse set of traffic and weather conditions. We've not seen any of that yet.

Musk said there would be a release of V11 this week. We'll see, but I suspect that the 2022.44.25.5 was supposed to be that release. But V11 wasn't ready, so they went with 10.69.25 as plan B.

powertoold · Dec 20, 2022

Supcom said:
Whatever problems exist with V11 must be pretty significant

Yea, it was supposed to be released over 15 months ago, lol:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536877529721491457

swedge · Dec 20, 2022

Supcom said:
Musk said there would be a release of V11 this week.

Did Elon say it would be a release to customers? Perhaps an internal release? Or, perhaps it was just Elon as usual leaving out the "not before" qualifier as usual. Or perhaps another Emissions Testing release, aka vaporware? ;-)

AlanSubie4Life · Dec 20, 2022

Supcom said:
Musk said there would be a release of V11 this week. We'll see, but I suspect that the 2022.44.25.5 was supposed to be that release.

The way things have been going, I expect Elon to overrule everyone and just tell them to YOLO it in the next couple days. He’ll accompany it with a Tweet about how it would be a crime not to release it. And they’ll provide a toggle to turn it off (until such a toggle disappears, there is not really a true single-stack release - it’s just some experimental software that is less safe).

JulienW · Dec 20, 2022

swedge said:
Did Elon say it would be a release to customers? Perhaps an internal release? Or, perhaps it was just Elon as usual leaving out the "not before" qualifier as usual. Or perhaps another Emissions Testing release, aka vaporware? ;-)

Internal doesn’t count as a release. That is called internal testing. Release means to the customer base.

Scott Chapman · Dec 20, 2022

SO what I am seeing is that cars that were on 36.20 (FSDb 69.3.1) are getting 44.25.5 (FSD 69.25)

Zane Liu · Dec 20, 2022

Scott Chapman said:
SO what I am seeing is that cars that were on 36.20 (FSDb 69.3.1) are getting 44.25.5 (FSD 69.25)

I haven’t seen the update on my end yet coming from 69.3.1

Supcom · Dec 20, 2022

Scott Chapman said:
SO what I am seeing is that cars that were on 36.20 (FSDb 69.3.1) are getting 44.25.5 (FSD 69.25)

There are also cars coming from 10.69.3.3.

kylinblue · Dec 20, 2022

powertoold said:
Yea, it was supposed to be released over 15 months ago, lol:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536877529721491457

When Elon says it’s not quite ready, it’s really not ready

Mardak · Dec 20, 2022

Curious that the updates for FSD Beta 10.69.3.3 / 2022.40.4.10 and FSD Beta 10.69.25 / 2022.44.25.5 have been so different from previous releases. The former went to new FSD Beta testers increasing the TeslaFi FSD Beta fleet by about 5% while also going to a slightly smaller number of existing testers on 10.69.3.1, and it went first to "not-11" employees then Early Access group and new testers at the same time. The latter so far is roughly a 5% rollout, and more interestingly that it went to "not-11" employees then existing Safety Score group skipping those in Early Access:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605320154581041152

Could this different rollout behavior be in preparation for something FSD Beta 11 related?

Supcom · Dec 20, 2022

Mardak said:
Curious that the updates for FSD Beta 10.69.3.3 / 2022.40.4.10 and FSD Beta 10.69.25 / 2022.44.25.5 have been so different from previous releases. The former went to new FSD Beta testers increasing the TeslaFi FSD Beta fleet by about 5% while also going to a slightly smaller number of existing testers on 10.69.3.1, and it went first to "not-11" employees then Early Access group and new testers at the same time. The latter so far is roughly a 5% rollout, and more interestingly that it went to "not-11" employees then existing Safety Score group skipping those in Early Access:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605320154581041152

Could this different rollout behavior be in preparation for something FSD Beta 11 related?

One part of me wants to believe that there's some V11 thing about to drop, but I still think that V11 won't be seen until next week at the earliest. So, I expect the floodgates will soon open on 10.69.25 and we'll all be pushed that very soon. It is strange that the Early Access group didn't get it first, but, if this is really 10.69.3.3 dressed up in a Santa suit, then there's really nothing new to test FSD-wise. I haven't seen any 10.69.25 videos on youtube, so it certainly appears that the usual crowd has not gotten first dibs.

Scott Chapman · Dec 21, 2022

Supcom said:
One part of me wants to believe that there's some V11 thing about to drop, but I still think that V11 won't be seen until next week at the earliest. So, I expect the floodgates will soon open on 10.69.25 and we'll all be pushed that very soon. It is strange that the Early Access group didn't get it first, but, if this is really 10.69.3.3 dressed up in a Santa suit, then there's really nothing new to test FSD-wise. I haven't seen any 10.69.25 videos on youtube, so it certainly appears that the usual crowd has not gotten first dibs.

Yea, I'm just not seeing any V11 based build going out to any cars

willow_hiller · Dec 21, 2022

I wonder if this is still true:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604168486153949184

tmoz · Dec 21, 2022

The sooner it comes out, the sooner everyone will be talking about steps backwards and hoping the next dot release comes out soon. Don't take the cake out of the oven too soon.

Dewg · Dec 21, 2022

tmoz said:
The sooner it comes out, the sooner everyone will be talking about steps backwards and hoping the next dot release comes out soon. Don't take the cake out of the oven too soon.

The lost art of patience...

Gbills · Dec 21, 2022

Dewg said:
The lost art of patience...

View attachment 887511

I’ve been patient for just under 5YEARS of statement after statement.

Dewg · Dec 21, 2022

Gbills said:
I’ve been patient for just under 5YEARS of statement after statement.

How much longer are you planning on keeping that car? You'll eventually buy a new one, probably from a different mfg, and get all the features you want. Avail yourself of the free market, and vote with your dollars.

Supcom · Dec 21, 2022

willow_hiller said:
I wonder if this is still true:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604168486153949184

There's a reasonable probability that a V11 build will get pushed out to the Favored Few by New Years.

FSD Beta v11.x

Member

Member

Active Member

Active Member

Member

Efficiency Obsessed Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Member

Active Member

Member

Active Member

Active Member

Member

Well-Known Member

S85D, Y LR, ex Prius PiP

Active Member

Member

Active Member

Active Member

Similar threads