FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[boonedocks]

View attachment 903549
Reset that clock!

I guess @elonmusk wasn’t hopeful enough

 

[kabin]

Today is the 11th and possibly marks the end of the week. Elon is probably itching to release the FSDb hounds.

 

[Zilla91]

He said the end of the week but he didn't specify which week specifically

 

[JulienW]

Today is the 11th and possibly marks the end of the week. Elon is probably itching to release the FSDb hounds.

This is the 13th 11th since Elon first announced V11 would be released. That is a lot of itch scratching on those FSDb
hounds.

 

[willow_hiller]

No "probably" or "maybe" in this Tweet. Maybe he means it this time:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624693067143069702

 

[Supcom]

No "probably" or "maybe" in this Tweet. Maybe he means it this time:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624693067143069702

Always increase the units of a corporate time estimate by one level. So, 'this week' should be read as 'this month'. Still, getting close as there are only two weeks left this month.

 

[bayareaever]

No "probably" or "maybe" in this Tweet. Maybe he means it this time:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624693067143069702

but what does ‘limited’ mean at this point?

 

[Supcom]

but what does ‘limited’ mean at this point?

Limited means that Tesla will do a staged rollout probably starting with around 1000 cars. This is usually the original group testers, YouTubers, VIPs and maybe a few randomly selected FSD lottery winners. After they get telemetery and feedback from these cars driving around for a while, they will release a 11.3.1 to a larger set of cars, prob around 10,000 or so. Repeat the evaluation, fix major bugs, then release 11.3.2 to everyone over the course of a couple weeks.

If all goes well, it should take about a month for the full rollout. If not, then 11.3 may be halted and they'll start over with 11.4.

 

[Knightshade]

No "probably" or "maybe" in this Tweet. Maybe he means it this time:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624693067143069702

I mean, there IS a "probably" in the tweet

Also you'd think Elon of all people would know how far "90%" is from 100% but apparently not

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Also you'd think Elon of all people would know how far "90%" is from 100%

No, I wouldn’t.

 

[JulienW]

but what does ‘limited’ mean at this point?

Whole Mars only gets it.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

but what does ‘limited’ mean at this point?

Those certified sufficiently sanguine.

 

[powertoold]

What a relief! It's finally coming! I hope it fixes some of my few issues with 25.2 (namely moving into short dedicated right turn lanes).

Elon didn't drop any superlatives about 11.3 (except for "major improvements"), so it's probably a regression vs 25.2.

 

[yosiel]

Just don’t understand Tesla. Why are we held up from FSD because of newer updates. If FSD is available it should work if we upload each and every new update. Now they tell us that updating was a mistake. Waiting more than 7 days since I upgraded to city FSD. And there is no one to complain too. They say within 2 days you’ll see an update. Not happening

 

[JulienW]

Just don’t understand Tesla. Why are we held up from FSD because of newer updates. If FSD is available it should work if we upload each and every new update. Now they tell us that updating was a mistake. Waiting more than 7 days since I upgraded to city FSD. And there is no one to complain too. They say within 2 days you’ll see an update. Not happening

Google Tesla Beta 10.3 rollback.

 

[Goose66]

No "probably" or "maybe" in this Tweet. Maybe he means it this time

23rd time’s a charm!

 

[JulienW]

No "probably" or "maybe" in this Tweet. Maybe he means it this time:

I bet he Maybe means it every time. However I'm not going to count my chickens AGAIN until I see Chuck Cook's first V11 video. Even then we are likely nearly a month away from wide release and actually getting it.

 

[boonedocks]

Those certified sufficiently sanguine.

those people

 

[tmoz]

This comes to mind ...

 

[tivoboy]

Limited means that Tesla will do a staged rollout probably starting with around 1000 cars. This is usually the original group testers, YouTubers, VIPs and maybe a few randomly selected FSD lottery winners.

I doubt it’s gonna go out to this group this week, but I will Happily eat crow if we see that level of expanded testing