You’re maths proficiency is far greater than mine Also you already have an S you lucky bugger! We just have to envy yours for the next 19 months.
I am lucky. But I wish the 3 was coming to Australia mid-2018. Get yourself a second hand 85D. Cracker of a battery pack, superchargers much faster than my newer 75 pack.
Didn't that happen with the S? Occasional price drops? Aussie dollar wise, who knows, I think the price has changed in our favour in the last couple of weeks!
Sure did. At one point the S dropped about $20,000, then went back $20,000 a year or two later, all due to AUD being over USD.
What's with the price on the Model 3 being announced as US$35k for 220mile and US$44k for 310mile but yet when I use Tesla's link to check an estimated delivery based on my reservation I see US$49k for the 310mile, see attached.
The first production is long range and premium only (extra 5K). Only options are wheels, colour and autopilot. See faq Model 3 Reservations FAQ
Ok, cool...I'd go the preimum pack anyhow. Looks like here in Australia we'll have the choice of dual our rear only motors without effecting our estimated delivery date. I'm happy for early 2019, my S will be a tad over 3 years and ready for swap over....
We waited a similar period of time for Model S. Like others have said, there will be mote options available by 2019 and most of the bugs should be resolved. My Model S will be nearly 5 and 100,000km so may be a good time for a change. I'll still go over to Fremont to test drive one first as im not keen on the single screen design and will want to experience it before committing, most likely next year.
I think this is different though. Model S was at the start of Tesla, expensive, low production quantities. And they weren’t pumping out 10,000 cars a week with 100’s of thousands of cars delivered before the first one lands in Oz. And my thinking is affected by the fact that someone coming in in early 2019 and ordering won’t have long to wait until they get a car because the production system will be able to smash out so many cars each week. That’s kind of my major bug bear that people who reserved and paid the deposit and waited 3 years will have a vehicle two weeks before someone who lobs in to the Tesla show room and buys one. I’m not against the car and I’m duly impressed by Tesla being able to deliver far ahead of schedule - they’ve done an amazing job. I’m just failing to see what the advantage of reserving now and sitting on the reservation is. I’m not thinking in terms of interest on a $1500 deposit which will be two fifths of nothing. I’m thinking that I can take the $1500 and have a nice holiday, buy a couple of extra Xmas presents - for two years! Or anything really. And then when right hand drive cars start getting delivered into Europe, England, I can drop into the Tesla store and order a car.
Something is weird. My My Tesla page says Dec 2017-Jan 2018 for my Australian early reservation. (Oct-Dec for my US reservation.)
Too late to edit... it looks like the reservation page thinks both my reservations are in US. So ignore that.
It's looking like my prediction of a CCS Type 1 port on the right hand side of North American cars is not going to happen, more fiddling with the dodgy Chademo adaptor. Hopefully the European/Australian cars will have the CCS pins.
This was the info I really wanted out of the event. Didn't expect it in US, as 2 ports would be clunky. But for EU/AU one CCS 2 port would cover the old and the new. As for early 2019 - I'm OK with that, almost relieved in a sense. I'll be a definite for the premium options and probably for either the dual motor or the range add on. Maybe even both but not likely. I was expecting late 2018, so early 2019 isn't a huge hit to the timeline but does give me some valuable time to save for those options. The real issue is what do I do with my EV conversion in the meantime - It's not suitable for my family anymore but I don't want to buy an ICE in the meantime... maybe next year I can do a ski trip to the US and get lucky with a model 3 on Turo. doubtful.
Ok here is a reason to keep your model 3 reservation - potential price rises. Between when I put my reservation down for a model s and well before the RHD cars were available to configure, Tesla raised the US list price. As a show of good faith they arranged a discount equal to the difference for the existing reservation holders here. Since the difference is nearly 2 years a similar thing could happen again.
Houdini said "Once they are at full production capacity they could knock out all the Aussie reservations in a couple of weeks so form order in say late 2018 or early 2019 you could get your car in a month." I think this is an important point. EM is hoping to get to 500k cars per year production rate by the end of 2018. That's 10k cars per week. Last year some google analytics experts estimated there were around 7k Australian reservations, so basically the entire Australian order could be fulfilled in 1 week. Hence, anyone ordering now, or even in 1 years time, will get their car about the same time as those of us who lined up at a store. I could be bitter and twisted about that but I'm not. My biggest disappointment is that EM tweeted a couple of months ago that RHD would enter production mid next year - but no, we now find it's not. A 3 year wait is hard to take but there's little choice except cop it. The upside? Well it will be a mature car by then. Also there will likely be more and different options, and likely more unbundling of options. So we will be getting a better product than the first USA cars. But I really don't look forward to having to drive my ICE for another 18 months
Sorry, no. An early reservation does not protect you from price rises - at least not any more. The price is fixed only when you configure. So if there was a 6 month delay or 12 month delay between configuring and receiving your car, you are guaranteed to only pay the amount indicated when you configured. Australian pricing hasn't even been announced, hence there is no benchmark and nothing to guarantee against. Australian reservationists are unlikely to be invited to configure before late 2018. That's when we'll know pricing.
Whilst Tesla might be able to build 7000 cars in a week, Tesla au won't be able to deliver at anywhere near that rate. A service centre would be doing well to deliver 30 a day. Say four service centres. 120 cars per day nationally. If there are 7000 reservations, that's two months between first and last..
But if self driving is enabled by then the rate could be higher as they can deliver themselves although they may still need predelivery checks?? Also probably at least 5 service centres by then (Syd, Mel, Bri, ADL and Per), still weeks or even a month to complete preorder deliveries. If Tesla is still shipping at start of quarter and delivering at the end of qtr like now then could be 3 months between early and late res deliveries.
OK that's a fair point, but I think my general observation is still valid - a 3 year difference in reservation date results in maybe a 3 month difference in delivery date. It's a slightly curious outcome.