for my own protection, given the recent apparent hiccups in the referral program databases (see posts by some members losing Gigafactory invites from this current as well as past programs, service credits, etc), I've started taking daily screen caps of my referral counter, showing the number of days remaining as a proxy for when the referral became a 'solid' referral. For example, my last referral was July 15th, so I'd presume any still showing on my counter today (July 23) are all one week old or older (thus presumably confirmed orders, albeit not actually 'delivered' cars).
Yes, this can be easily photoshopped but I figure it's quite reasonable proof.
I recognize the program states "delivered" car as the gold standard, so there's still a potential to lose the credit. For the Gigafactory invite on this round, though, most won't have had the car delivered before the event next week, so it seems that tesla is awarding the tours now.